COVID-19

COVID-19 new cases over last 14 days pass 5,000,000 for first time on October 22.

According to data compile by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, total new COVID-19 cases reported globally reached 5,042,415 for the last fourteen days on October 22, 2020 bringing the totals since data started to be gathered at the end of 2019 to 41.299 million cases. See European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, October 22, 2020, COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 22 October 2020, https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases. This is the first day where the two week total exceeded five million. The most recent two week total compares to 3,780,469 new cases for the two weeks ending on September 13; 3,019,983 new cases for the two weeks ending on July 19; 1,932,024 new cases for the two weeks ending on June 21; and 1,281,916 new cases for the two weeks ending on May 24.

While vaccines are available in China and the Russian Federation to some extent and emergency approval of two vaccines may be presented to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the second half of November 2020, countries is the Americas and Europe in particular are seeing sharp increases in the number of new cases as cooler weather and greater time indoors accompanies the start of Fall.

Here are all countries (13) that had 100,000 new cases or more in the last two weeks according to the ECDC report. They account for 3,605,666 of the cases in the last two weeks (71.5%). All but India and Brazil are increasing, most dramatically:

India – 871,291 (down from recent periods)

United States – 786,488 (increasing)

France – 303,912 (increasing)

Brazil – 298,078 (down from recent periods)

United Kingdom – 244,954 (increasing)

Russian Federation – 198,716 (increasing)

Argentina – 196,410 (increasing)

Spain – 169,394 (increasing)

Italy – 115,708 (increasing)

Czechia – 113,555 (increasing)

Colombia – 104,017 (increasing)

Netherlands – 103,024 (increasing)

Belgium – 100,119 (increasing)

Individual countries in Europe are reimposing some restrictions in response to the sharp spike in new cases, including lockdowns in Ireland and Czechia. See Politico, October 21, 2020, EU leaders to discuss Coronavirus on October 29, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-to-confer-on-pandemic-oct-29/. The EU has made arrangements with three groups developing vaccines for early supplies and is reported to be close to arrangements with three more (and possibly with a fourth).

Different states in the United States are responding to the rising number of new cases in different ways reflecting in part the politicization of prevention measures like wearing masks and the continued mixed messages coming from government officials on the pandemic. Rural America which had escaped most of the early infections has been going through large surges, particularly in the middle of the country and in the northern states in the midwest. Hospitalizations have increased in many states and will likely continue to climb if predictions of worsening new case counts continue to play out. The U.S. has made arrangements with a number of pharmaceutical companies and groups for early access to vaccines that receive approval for distribution.

In a recent WTO TRIPs Council meeting, the U.S. and U.S. reportedly opposed a proposal from India and South Africa to waive certain intellectual property protections for a period of time to address getting vaccines and therapeutics to all peoples when available. See World Trade Organization press release, October 20, 2020, Members discuss intellectual property response to the COVID-19 pandemic, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/trip_20oct20_e.htm; Inside U.S. Trade’s World Trade Online, October 20, 2020, U.S., EU oppose WTO effort to waive IP protections amid pandemic, https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/us-eu-oppose-wto-effort-waive-ip-protections-amid-pandemic.

As the pandemic continues to rage with a shifting focus on hot spots back to more developed countries and as vaccines get close to approval and mass production, the question of distribution of vaccines and therapeutics to countries in need will become a more pressing issue. While there has been greater international cooperation (with the exception of the U.S.) in supporting groups focuses on getting vaccines to developing and least developed countries, there obviously remains a tension between the role of government in taking care of its citizens and its role in contributing to global outreach. See Nature, 24 September 2020, Who Gets a Covid Vaccine First? Access plans are taking shape, https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-020-02684-9/d41586-020-02684-9.pdf While the WHO would like to see all countries pool vaccines and make them available to vulnerable groups globally before addressing other national needs, that is a highly unlikely scenario among major producing countries. Particularly for developed countries experiencing large surges in new cases, the political pressure to address the immediate needs at home will likely rule government actions. The good news is that some pharmaceutical companies involved in vaccine development have plans to produce or license production in multiple countries, including in countries for broader distribution to developing and least developed countries. This is in addition to the government and private sector support to GAVI and others for obtaining vaccines and therapeutics and making them available to countries in need.

Conclusion

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to accelerate and will likely worsen for the Americas and Europe in the coming weeks. If there are increased restrictions by countries in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, that will slow the economic rebound in important parts of the world and will likely slow the rebound in trade in goods and services.

At the same time, the world is getting close to knowing whether a number of the vaccine trials underway by western pharmaceutical companies have been successful and whether vaccines from these companies will join those of China and Russia. As vaccines and some therapeutics become commercially available, there will be the important challenge of seeing that all peoples with needs are able to access the vaccines and therapeutics on an equitable and affordable basis. The jury is out as to how access will actually work and whether the roll out of vaccines and therapeutics will in fact be equitable and affordable.

The effect of COVID-19 on the operation of WTO dispute settlement panels — Australia and others raise at the September 28 Dispute Settlement Body meeting

While most attention on the WTO’s dispute settlement system has focused on the operation of the Appellate Body, the timeliness of disputes is often driven by the actions of the panel. Under Article 12 of the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU), panels are to render their reports within six months (3 months in urgent matters) and no longer than nine months after the panel is composed. Few if any panels in recent years have remotely come close to meeting a nine month report deadline.

With the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting limitations on in person meetings at the WTO and travel restrictions, the panel process has been further complicated. At the recent Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) meeting of September 28, Australia had put on the agenda the issue of “COVID-19 and dispute settlement”. Agenda item 9 of Proposed Agenda for the 28 September 2020 Dispute Settlement Body meeting, WT/DSB/W/670.

The subsequent press release on the DSB meeting contained the following description of the discussion of Australia’s issue on COVID-19 and dispute settlement.

Statement by Australia on COVID-19 and dispute settlement

“On behalf of 14 members (Australia; Brazil; Canada; Ecuador; Guatemala; Hong Kong, China; Mexico; New Zealand; Norway; Peru; Singapore; Switzerland; Ukraine; and the United Kingdom), Australia made a statement expressing concern about delays in dispute settlement proceedings resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“While it is encouraging that DSB meetings have been able to resume at the WTO, ongoing restrictions affecting international travel and immigration place in question the feasibility of physical participation of panelists and capital-based delegates at meetings in Geneva into the future, Australia noted. During 2020, various governments, private sector organizations, and domestic and international adjudicative bodies worldwide have adapted their usual ways of working to continue operating in these difficult conditions; WTO members must ensure the dispute settlement system does the same.

“Australia urged panels to consider, in consultation with parties, flexible, alternative arrangements to ensure dispute proceedings can continue to progress in a timely manner despite the challenge of current restrictions. Australia recalled that Article 12.1 of the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) affords panels discretion in the working procedures they adopt in individual disputes, and that panels, after consulting in parties, may determine alternative arrangements that would best serve the satisfactory settlement of the matters. Some panels have already adjusted their procedures to hold substantive meetings virtually through video conferencing technology; Australia welcomed these developments but, to ensure the equitable operation of the dispute settlement system, WTO members must find solutions to enable all current and future matters to move forward in one way or another.

“Several delegations took the floor to comment. Japan said that while virtual meetings are an option, face to face meetings were preferable, and that each panel should consult with parties on how to proceed in order to strike an appropriate balance between prompt settlement of disputes and protection of due process. India said oral hearings were an intrinsic aspect of due process rights guaranteed by the DSU and that panels cannot truncate these rights without the agreement of the parties in a dispute.

“The United States encouraged each panel to consult with the parties on how to proceed, bearing in mind the views of the parties and the relevant provisions of the DSU. China said it was fundamental to provide certainty in dispute settlement in order to avoid any undue delay; it noted some panels have adopted flexible procedures as a response. The EU said that the discretion of panels is not completely unfettered and that they must ensure the prompt settlement of disputes, a principle that was valid for all disputes. Both South Africa and Nigeria (for the African Group) noted the asymmetrical impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on developing country members.”

WTO Dispute Settlement, 28 September 2020, Panel established to review China’s compliance with farm subsidy ruling, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/dsb_28sep20_e.htm.

The fact that Australia and others raised the issue at the DSB is certainly welcome, although the comments of Members at the DSB meeting indicates that there are both an array of problems facing different Members and arguably mixed motives for some in concerns about alternative approaches to in person meetings.

First, panels have regularly used the existence of the pandemic as a justification for a lengthy delay in the likely release of a panel report. See, e.g., India – Additional Duties on Certain Products from the United States, WT/DS585/4 (4 June 2020)(panel composed on 7 January 2020, because of pandemic, report to parties not before the second quarter of 2021); India – Measures Concerning Sugar and Sugarcane, WT/DS579/9; WT/DS580/9; WT/DS581/10 (29 April 2020)(complainants are Guatemala, Australia and Brazil)(panels composed on 28 October 2019, report to the parties not before the second quarter of 2021).

Thus, the issue of delay caused by the pandemic is an important one to address to maintain the timely operation of panels. While many developing countries may have greater challenges in terms of internal infrastructure for alternative means of handling disputes remotely, the claim of due process concerns at least for some Members is suspect particularly if the functioning of administrative and judicial activities in-country are being handled remotely/virtually as is true in many countries. For example, in the United States, arguments at federal courts are handled remotely, including at the highest court in the land. No Member should be allowed to delay panel proceedings on due process grounds where their own administrative and court proceedings are handled remotely during the pandemic. The Secretariat should seek transparency from Members on how their agencies and courts are handling matters during the pandemic.

Certainly, WTO Members should identify challenges they face to being able to engage in remote/virtual hearings if in person events are not possible. Where problems exist, the WTO Secretariat in conjunction with other organizations should look to see what technical assistance can be provided to permit active participation. Similarly, if issues affect the ability of panelists to handle matters remotely, there should be a review of options that may exist to facilitate panelists ability to participate. Again, the Secretariat should seek information from Members on challenges they face in participating in dispute proceedings and should have information on potential panelists on the same types of issues.

While the basic premises that panels should consult with parties is clearly the correct path to follow (contrary to the current practice of many panels and that reviewed in detail about the Appellate Body), there is the question of what happens when there is a difference among the parties as to how to proceed. The good offices of the Director-General can be used to possibly bridge the differences. Delay should only be permitted when the concerns of the party objecting to proceeding cannot be reasonably overcome.

It will be interesting to see if Members press for a prompt resolution to the concerns raised at the last DSB meeting, or if they simply let the problems continue to fester and delay the proper operation of panels.

World COVID-19 pandemic continues to spin out of control — more than 4.3 million new cases in last two weeks

After plateauing in terms of new cases during August, COVID-19 new cases are increasing rapidly for the world as a whole. For the period September 28-October 11, data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control show new cases in the world being 4,366,825 — an increase of 6.24% from the prior two weeks. Thee period September 14-27, dshow new cases i at 4,110,081. That compares to 3,780,469 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period and 3,558,360 for August 17-30, 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Total cases since the end of December 2019 are now at 37.268 million.

The United States which has more confirmed cases (7,718,947) than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19 (214,377), saw the number of new cases increase over the last two weeks following the change in direction recorded in the prior two weeks after three two week periods where the U.S. saw a decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period and was further reduced to 524,526 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period. The downtrend was reversed during September 14-27, when the number of new cases increased to 592,690 or a daily average of 42,335 cases. During September 28-October 11, the United States recorded 640,149 new cases (45,725/day). That number is likely to continue upward as recent days have seen the United States recording new cases at more than 50,000/day.

The United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases has started a slow descent from its peak of 1,238,176 new cases two weeks ago, with 1,061,274 new cases recorded during September 28-October 11. India is the only country to have recorded more than one million cases in a two week period.

Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16, 529,057 new cases during August 17-30, 469,534 new cases during August 31-September 13, 402,304 new cases during September 14-27 and 364,646 during September 28-October 11.

India, the United States and Brazil accounted for 47.31% of the new global cases during the last two weeks, down from 54.33% during September 14-27 and down from 58.34% in the August 31-September 13 period. The three countries account for prior two weeks) and account for 53.25% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019.

The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 20.70% of total confirmed cases since December 2019 — 4.81 times the share of total cases our population would justify. With the increase in the most recent two weeks, the U.S. was 14.66% of the total new cases during the last two weeks (Sept. 28-October 11) or 3.41 times the U.S. share of global population. The U.S. also accounts for 19.97% of total deaths or 4.64 times the U.S. share of global population.

Changing pattern of growth in cases, developing world still experiencing significant volume of new cases

As reviewed above the United States is seeing a rising number of cases over the last four weeks, a trend that unfortunately seems certain to continue in the near future.

Many developed countries have seen a second wave of cases, as will be reviewed below, which has increased the percent of global new cases occurring in developed countries.

Still a very large part of the new cases are in developing countries as has been true for the last few months. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Argentina (181,412), Colombia (96,709), Mexico (87,897), Indonesia (57,613), Iraq (54,155), Iran (53,167), Peru (45,496), the Philippines (35,670), Morocco (31,157), Chile (23,616), South Africa (21,398), Turkey (21,065), Bangladesh (19,200) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases. Of the listed developing countries, only Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia, Iran, Morocco, Chile and South Africa saw increases from the September 14-27 period.

Continued developed country resurgence in new cases

With the reopening of some international travel and with the end of the summer holiday season and the start of cooler weather in fall for northern hemisphere countries, there has been a noticeable surge of new cases in many developed countries, particularly in Western Europe where is it generally described as the coming of a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

France’s spike continued with 191,427 new cases in September 28-October 11 up from 153,535 in the prior two weeks. France’s most recent numbers are 3.36 times the number recorded in August 17-30 period (57,009 new cases) and 1.89 times the number in the August 31-September 13 period, 101,381.

Spain’s spike seems to have plateaued and started a decline in the September 28-Ocotber 11 period with 144,631 new cases. For August 17-30, Spain saw 96,473 new cases. The August 31-September 13 period saw a further large increase for Spain to 127,040 cases. For the period from September 14-27, Spain’s numbers further increased to 150,155.

The United Kingdom is facing major challenges as the last two weeks saw new cases more than double to 161,567 from 64,103 new cases in September 14-27 and just 32,422 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period.

The Netherlands more than doubled its number of new cases during September 28-Ocotber 11 to 59,561 from 27,584 new cases during September 14-27 and just 11,374 during August 31-September 13.

Germany showed a significant increase in the most recent two weeks to 38,724 from 24,712 the prior two weeks and 17,657 new cases in the period from the end of August to mid September.

Czechia which spiked following summer vacations saw its number of new cases during September 28-October 11 grow to 46,080 from 23,893 the prior two weeks and from 11,307 in the August 31 – September 13 period.

Italy jumped to 41,390 new cases during September 28-October up from 21,807 during September 14-27.

Belgium added 40,791 in the September 28-October 11 period more than doubling the numbers from September 14-27 of 17,797.

Romania added 31,168 in the last two weeks up from 18,849 the prior two week.

The Russian Federation had a large spike in the last two week up to 141,513 from 86,209 in the September 14-27 period.

Ukraine saw 60,762 new cases in September 28-October 11, up from 43,645 new cases the prior two weeks.

Canada has seen a second wave in the last four weeks, with new cases in August 31-September 13 time period being 8,468, followed by 15,530 during September 14-27 and 26,466 during September 28-October 11.

Israel’s second wave which reached 73,883 new cases during September 14-27, saw a decline to 62,903 new cases in the September 28-October 11 period.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (214,377) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (9,880) behind only India (13,381). Both the U.S. and India saw the number of new deaths decline from the prior two weeks. The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population for the last two weeks were the following: Argentina (17.95), Israel (5.87), Mexico (5.80), Ecuador (5.27), Costa Rica (4.91), Colombia (4.70), Moldova (4.43), Brazil (4.17), Bolivia (4.03), Panama (3.74), Spain (3.62), Chile (3.59), Iran (3.50), Romania (3.46), Peru (3.33), and the United States (3.00). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.03 deaths/100,000 population. So the U.S.’s death rate over the last two weeks was 2.91 times the global average and was much higher than many large and/or developed countries. China’s number was so low, it was 0.00 people/100,000 population; France was 1.47, Germany 0.19, India 1.01, Italy 0.53, Japan 0.06, South Korea 0.06, Singapore 0.00, United Kingdom 1.18, Taiwan 0.00, Canada 0.86, Australia 0.11, New Zealand 0.00.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through October 11, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 14.14 deaths. The nine countries (of 86 which account for over 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Peru (102.19), Belgium (88.82), Bolivia (72.02), Brazil (71.17), Spain (70.16), Ecuador (70.15), Chile (70.03), Mexico (65.56), the United States (65.15). With the exception of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (the European countries were typically less than 1 death per 100,000). The United States death rate has been 4.61 times the global rate and many times higher than nearly all other developed countries and most developing countries. Consider the following examples: China, where the virus was first found, has a death per 100,000 population of just 0.33 people. India’s data show 7.93 per 100,000 population; Germany has 11.58; Japan has 1.28; Korea is just 0.84; Canada is 25.62; Switzerland is 20.98; Poland is 7.83; Ukraine is 11.11; Norway is 5.16; Australia is 3.56; New Zealand is 0.52.

Conclusion

The world in the first nine and a half months of 2020 has struggled to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania had greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been a significant resurgence in many of these countries (particularly in Europe) as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased, schools reopen in many countries and fall comes to the northern hemisphere. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (and there is a new surge in Canada and the start of resurgence in the U.S.), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in limited parts of Africa. A recent WTO Secretariat information paper showed that there has been a reduction in shortages of many medical goods needed to handle the COVID-19 pandemic which is obviously good news, although as the global total of new cases continues to rise, there may yet be additional challenges in terms of supply. See 18 September 2020, Information Note, How WTO Members Have Used Trade Measures to Expedite Access to COVID-19 Critical Medical Goods and Services, https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/services_report_16092020_e.pdf.

In the northern hemisphere, countries are going into fall where there will likely be greater time spent indoors which could result in a significant spike in cases which could further stretch the global ability to respond.

Moreover, in many countries, stimulus packages have run their course such that large scale increases in unemployment could happen in the coming weeks. This has been the case in the United States even though the President and many of those closest to him have tested positive for COVID-19. Efforts at a new stimulus package have stalled despite a House which passed a package back in May and a second package in recent weeks. It remains unclear if anything will happen before the national elections on November 3. The result has been tens of thousands of employees furloughed in the airline industry, at major employers like Disney and will likely be the case for many state and local government employees with the start of the fiscal year in October and the obligation for most states to run a balanced budget. The failure of a new stimulus initiative will significantly increase the braking action on the economy from the pandemic in the fourth quarter of 2020 in the United States.

Similarly as countries in much of the developed world take new restrictive actions to address the second wave of cases, there will likely be significant ongoing effects to the global economy and international trade.

The last four weeks (beginning on September 14 through October 11) have seen the global number of new cases continue to grow after six weeks in July and most of August of what appeared to be a peak or plateau. For the reasons reviewed above, October – December are likely to see continued growth in the global number of new cases.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. Still the timing of outcomes remains unknown though anticipated by the end of 2020 and first part of 2021. China has been distributing one of its vaccines to parts of its population in advance of formal clearance of stage three trials. The Russians have been lining up customers for their vaccine even though the stage three trials are only underway and the results will lag the initial rollout of the vaccine. For other countries (the U.S., European Union, Japan, etc.) the rollout of vaccines if approved will take time to get large parts of the global population vaccinated. It is unclear what the global capacity will be to produce vaccines proven to be safe and effective, although reports suggest a likely significant shortfall despite government assistance in the global supplies that will be available in 2021. This uncertainty about likely capacities, plus the large purchases made by major western governments (U.S., EU, U.K., Japan), will likely place a large cloud over much if not all of 2021 in terms of distribution of vaccines even in an optimistic scenario.

With the world collectively unable to get the pandemic under control in many parts of the world, with likely increases this fall and winter, with fatigue in many countries on the actions needed to slow the spread of the virus and, in at least some countries, the mixed messages from government on the correct actions needed to gain control, the rest of 2020 will be very challenging. With the global death count now over one million, there have already been tens of thousand and likely hundreds of thousands of deaths that didn’t need to occur. The prospect of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands more dying needlessly hang over the global community as an inexplicable failure of at least some governments to protect their citizens and to cooperate for a comprehensive global response.

In last two weeks global COVID-19 cases increased by more than 4.1 million as virus continues to spin out of control

After plateauing in terms of new cases during August, COVID-19 new cases are increasing rapidly for the world as a whole. For the period September 14-27, data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control show new cases in the world topping four million for the first time — 4,110,081. That compares to 3,780,469 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period and 3,558,360 for August 17-30, 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Total cases since the end of December 2019 are now above 32.9 million.

The United States which has more confirmed cases (7,078,798) than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19 (204,497), saw the number of new cases increase over the last two weeks after three two week periods where the U.S. saw a decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period and was further reduced to 524,526 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period. The downtrend was reversed these past two week, when the number of new cases increased to 592,690 or a daily average of 42,335 cases. The United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases is continuing to increase, and were 1,238,176 in the last two weeks, slightly higher than the 1,211,623 new cases reported in the August 31-September 13 period. India is the only country to have recorded more than one million cases in a two week period and appears to have plateaued at a rate of more than 88,000/day over the last month.

Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16, 529,057 new cases during August 17-30, 469,534 new cases during August 31-September 13 and down to 402,304 new cases during September 14-27.

India, the United States and Brazil accounted for 54.33% of the new global cases during the last two weeks (down from 58.34% in the prior two weeks) and account for 54.04% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019 (up from 54.01% through two weeks ago).

The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 21.51% of total confirmed cases since December 2019 — five times the share of total cases our population would justify. With the increase in the most recent two week after six weeks of declines, the U.S. was 14.42% of the total (up from 13.87% of new cases during August 17-30) or 3.35 times the U.S. share of global population. The U.S. also accounts for 20.55% of total deaths or 4.78 times the U.S. share of total population.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining over most of the last two months, the trend of new cases being focused on the developing world has shifted with a resurgence in Europe following the summer vacation period with a renewal of at least some international travel. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Argentina (166,781), Colombia (97,074), Peru (77,301), Iraq (73,883), Mexico (62,458), Iraq (59,191), Indonesia (56,582), the Philippines (43,393), Iran (43,146), Turkey (23,331), Chile (23,313), Bangladesh (21,829), South Africa (21,284) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases. Of the listed developing countries, only India, Argentina, Iraq, Indonesia, Iran and Turkey saw increases from the August 31-September 13 period.

Developed country resurgence in new cases

With the reopening of some international travel and with the end of the summer holiday season, there has been a noticeable surge of new cases in a number of developed countries, particularly in Western Europe where is it generally described as the coming of a second wave of COVID-19 cases. France overtook Spain for the most new cases during September 14-27 with a total of 153,535. France nearly doubled the large number it had experienced in the August 17-30 period (57,009 new cases) in the August 31-September 13 period with new cases reaching 101,381. Spain continues to show large increases for a developed country that had gotten the COVID-19 spread under control until recently. For August 17-30, Spain saw an additional 96,473 new cases. The August 31-September 13 period saw a further large increase for Spain to 127,040 cases. For the period from September 14-27, Spain’s numbers further increased to 150,155. The United Kingdom nearly doubled the number of new cases to 64,103 up from 32,422 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period. The Netherlands more than doubled its number of new cases during September 14-27 from the prior two week period going to 27,584 new cases from 11,374. Germany showed a significant increase in the most recent two weeks to 24,712 from the prior two weeks (17,657 new cases; two weeks before that 17,538 new cases). Czechia which spiked following summer vacations saw its number of new cases grow to 23,893 from 11,307 in the August 31 – September period; Italy added 21,807 (up from 19,444 the prior two weeks); Romania added 18,849 (up from 16,553 in the prior two weeks). Other countries in Europe (Russia (86,209 new cases), Ukraine (43,645 new cases) and Hungary (12,189 new cases)) as well as Israel (73,883 new cases) also saw significant additional new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (204,497) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (10,796) behind only India (15,917), though the U.S. number of new deaths declined slightly from the prior two weeks while India’s number of new deaths continued to climb. The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population for the last two weeks were the following: Argentina (9.68), Colombia (5.09), Brazil (4.83), Peru (4.76), Costa Rica (4.72), Bolivia (4.61), Mexico (4.42), Panama (3.96), Chile (3.67), Puerto Rico (3.65), Israel (3.97) and the United States (3.28). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 0.98 deaths/100,000 population. So the U.S.’s death rate over the last two weeks was 3.35 times the global average and was much higher than many large and/or developed countries. China’s number was so low, it was 0.00 people/100,000 population; France was 1.18, Germany 0.13, India 1.16, Italy 0.36, Japan 0.08, South Korea 0.08, Singapore 0.00, United Kingdom 0.52, Spain 3.16, Taiwan 0.00, Canada 0.25, Australia 0.27, New Zealand 0.02.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through September 13, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 13.10 deaths. The nine countries (of 86 which account for over 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Peru (98.87), Belgium (87.07), Bolivia (67.79), Spain (66.54), Chile (66.44), Ecuador (64.89), United Kingdom (62.97), Brazil (67.00), the United States (62.14). With the exception of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (the European countries were typically less than 1 death per 100,000). The United States death rate has been 4.74 times the global rate and many times higher many other developed countries and most developing countries. Consider the following examples: China, where the virus was first found, has a death per 100,000 population of just 0.33 people. India’s data show 6.92; Germany has 11.39; Japan has 1.22; Korea is just 0.78; Canada is 24.76; Switzerland is 20.81; Poland is 6.38; Ukraine is 8.87; Norway is 5.07; Australia is 3.45; New Zealand is 0.52.

Conclusion

The world in the first nine months of 2020 has struggled to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been a significant resurgence in many of these countries (particularly in Europe) as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased and as schools reopen in many countries. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in limited parts of Africa. A recent WTO Secretariat information paper showed that there has been a reduction in shortages of many medical goods needed to handle the COVID-19 pandemic which is obviously good news, although as the global total of new cases continues to rise, there may yet be additional challenges in terms of supply. See 18 September 2020, Information Note, How WTO Members Have Used Trade Measures to Expedite Access to COVID-19 Critical Medical Goods and Services, https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/services_report_16092020_e.pdf.

In the northern hemisphere, countries are going into fall where there will likely be greater time spent indoors which could result in a significant spike in cases which could further stretch the global ability to respond.

Moreover, in many countries, stimulus packages have run their course such that large scale increases in unemployment could happen in the coming weeks. This is obviously the case in the United States in the airline industry (but also elsewhere) and will likely be the case for many state and local government employees with the start of the fiscal year in October and the obligation for most states to run a balanced budget. See, e.g., Bloomberg Businessweek, September 23, 2020, Airlines Face Desolate Future as Attempts to Reopen Crumble, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/coronavirus-pandemic-airlines-face-empty-future-as-crisis-continues?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews. The failure of a new stimulus initiative will significantly increase the braking action on the economy from the pandemic in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The September 14-27 period has seen the global number of new cases continue to grow after six weeks in July and most of August of what appeared to be a peak or plateau. October – December are likely to see continued growth in the global number of new cases.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. Still the results of the phase three trials are not yet in and as a temporary delay by AstraZeneca with its phase three trial showed, the timing of outcomes remains unknown though anticipated by the end of 2020 and first part of 2021. China has been distributing one of its vaccines to parts of its population in advance of formal clearance of stage three trials. The Russians have been lining up customers for their vaccine even though the stage three trials are only underway and the results will lag the initial rollout of the vaccine. For other countries (the U.S., European Union, Japan, etc.) the rollout of vaccines if approved will take time to get large parts of the global population vaccinated. It is unclear what the global capacity will be to produce vaccines proven to be safe and effective, although reports suggest a likely significant shortfall despite government assistance in the global supplies that will be available in 2021. This uncertainty about likely capacities, plus the large purchases made by major western governments (U.S., EU, U.K., Japan), will likely place a large cloud over much if not all of 2021 in terms of distribution of vaccines even in an optimistic scenario.

The ride is likely to get more complicated going forward with the world collectively unable to get the pandemic under control in many parts of the world, with likely increases this fall and winter, with fatigue in many countries on the actions needed to slow the spread of the virus and, in at least some countries, the mixed messages from government on the correct actions needed to gain control. With the global death count nearing one million, there have already been tens of thousand and likely hundreds of thousands of deaths that didn’t need to occur. The prospect of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands more dying needlessly hang over the global community. 2020 has proven to be a very challenging year. Time will tell if the challenge is confined to this year or continues to inflict substantial costs in 2021 and beyond.

OECD data on services trade and latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer — continued drag of travel and tourism on global trade

The OECD’s International Trade Pulse, updated September 2020, released on September 18, shows the continued recovery of merchandise trade by OECD members and China, although only China has recovered to levels achieved in 2019. Canada, the United States, Germany, Japan and Korea are roughly 90% of 2019 levels in July; Brazil is slightly above 90% in August; China was about 110% in August. See http://www.oecd.org/sdd/its/international-trade-pulse-oecd-updated-september-2020.htm.

The OECD information on services shows for certain major countries the percent growth or contraction over 2019 broken into three categories — transport, travel and other. Data are provided for China, France, Japan and the U.S. for both services exports and services imports. For all countries reviewed, travel services are from 40% to over 60% below 2019 levels through the first seven months of the year. Total trade in services for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States is provided in Table 2 of the September International Trade Pulse.

The UNWTO’s latest World Tourism Barometer

The global challenge shown in data from the OECD International Trade Pulse on travel services is confirmed with significantly more detail in the UN World Tourism Organization’s World Tourism Barometer, Volume 18, Issue 5, August/September 2020, https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/epdf/10.18111/wtobarometereng.2020.18.1.5.

The UNWTO publication reviews data through June 2020 and in some cases partial data for July and August. The publication notes that global international tourism is down some 65% in the first half of 2020 for a loss of 440 million international arrivals and some USD 460 billion in export revenues. Page 1. Based on preliminary estimates the UNWTO has for international travel in July and August, the publication forecasts a full year decline of some 70% with some recovery in 2021 but not returning to 2019 levels for 2 1/2 to 4 years. Id.

All regions of the world have seen massive declines in international travel and tourism. As measured by international tourist arrivals, the region of Asia and the Pacific saw the greatest decline in the first half of 2020, 72% below 2019 levels. Europe was down 66%; Africa and the Middle East were down 57%; and the Americas were down 55%. Id. at 3. On a sub-regional level, North-East Asia had the largest decline, 83%, while Southern/ Mediterranean Europe had the second largest decline at 72%. Id. at 4. For all regions and sub-regions, the decline in the second quarter of 2020 exceeded 90%, ranging from 90.3% for North America to 99.5% for Subsaharan Africa. Id. at 6.

Some regions have started to ease travel restrictions for travel from some countries which has resulted in some improvements in levels of international tourists in June and from press reports in July and August.

Europe has seen both the largest loss of international tourist arrivals (213 million through June) and also engaged in easing of travel restrictions in June, though the resurgence of cases in July to the present has resulted in some reversals on travel openings. Id. at 7.

The UNWTO report also provides the latest data from international organizations that monitor international passenger demand, international air capacity and hotel occupancy, revenue per available room and average daily rate. Id. at 5. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a decline in global air passenger demand of 67% for the first seven months, with July being down 92% vs. June of -97%. Id. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has indicated that international air capacity worldwide was down 59% in the January-July 2020 period versus 2019, with July being down 75% vs. June -88%. However, load factors were 46% lower than 2019 levels despite the drastic reduction in capacity. Id. Airlines around the world are in financial difficulties. In the United States, major airlines have indicated that major layoffs will occur in October without additional government relief. Despite a House bill providing additional stimulus support having been passed months ago, there has been no agreement with the U.S. Senate and White House on an additional stimulus package. With the White House and Senate focused on a highly divisive effort to race through a nomination and confirmation of a new Supreme Court Justice following last week’s death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, it is highly unlikely that another stimulus package gets approved ahead of the election with the likely result of tens of thousands of additional layoffs in the airline industry come October (and potentially hundreds of thousands of layoffs of state and local government employees as states reduce employment without additional relief). The U.S. stock market has reacted today to the likely lack of an additional stimulus package with declines in the markets.

On the hotel front, the UNWTO report includes information from Smith Travel Research (STR), an organization that prepares reports tracking supply and demand data for the hotel industry. Data reported by the UNWTO report indicates that globally hotels are suffering “double-digit declines in the three metrics, namely revenue per available room (RevPAR), average daily rate (ADR), and occupancy, with performance at low levels across all world regions in July 2020. Occupancy in July reached record lows of 17% in Africa, 19% in Central and South America, 27% in Europe, 35% in the Middle East, 46% i Asia and the Pacific and 47% in the United States.” Id.

While another major part of travel and tourism is not covered by the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, restaurants and bars are also in deep distress in many parts of the world with many countries requiring the closure of bars and restaurants or dramatically reduced capacities or hours of operation. Because of the large number of small businesses in this sector, job losses are high and the likelihood of massive closures a continuing high risk.

Efforts to lift travel restrictions

The UNWTO’s Seventh Report on COVID-19 Related Travel Restrictions, A Global Review for Tourism (as of 10 September 2020), https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-09/200909-travel-restrictions.pdf, provides detailed information on the status of countries who have either reopened in part or whole, who remain shut down. The Seventh Report shows some significant movement by countries to reopen or ease restrictions on international travel (a total of 115 countries, up 28 countries from July, now 53% of all destinations). The easing of restrictions are typically partial. Europe has the most countries which have eased restrictions since the start of COVID-19 and the initial lockdowns (44 countries). The Americas has seen liberalization in 27 countries (including 18 Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Africa has seen easing in 26 countries. Asia and the Pacific has seen easing in 13 countries including 5 SIDS. And there have been easing of restrictions in five countries in the Middle East. There are also 93 countries that have complete closure of their borders to international tourism travel including 26 SIDS.

What doesn’t exist are internationally agreed rules for when international tourism should be resumed and hence restrictions eased, what trade policies would facilitate reopening, what infrastructure needs may exist for SIDS and for many developing countries to be able to reopen safely and what assistance international organizations whether the WTO, WHO, IMF, World Bank, regional development banks or others can provide. Development of vaccines and therapeutics are obviously an important part of helping all nations get the virus under long term control. And how quickly and equitably vaccines and therapeutics can be made available to all peoples when approved remains a critical aspect of global control of the virus and improved consumer confidence to travel if restrictions are eased. But greater coordination and cooperation ahead of the availability of these medical products could provide important relief to hundreds of thousands of small businesses around the world.

Conclusion

The largest drag on the global economy from COVID-19 appears to be the extreme contraction of international travel and tourism (along with reduced domestic travel and tourism).

With the projections from the UNWTO being that the world will not regain the level of strength in the global travel and tourism sector for a number of years, there is an urgent need for all nations and the international organizations to up their game to prevent the massive dislocations that are occurring and likely to occur otherwise in the sector.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s 2020 Goalkeepers Report, COVID-19, A Global Perspective is a Reminder of the Critical Importance of Global Collaboration

In its annual report on progress on various UN Sustainable Development Goals (“SDGs”) released on September 15, 2020, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation calls out the reversal in trends on many sustainable development goals caused by the world’s effort to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a strong call for collaboration and cooperation among governments and the private sector to address the pandemic and ensure global access to therapeutics and vaccines on an equitable and affordable basis. The report is an important document that should help governments, international organizations, business associations and other NGOs focus on the pending challenges/risks and potential forward movements that are achievable. One of the stunning statements from Bill and Melinda Gates in recent interviews is that availability of vaccines has been set back twenty-five years in the past twenty-five weeks. See Business Insider, September 15, 2020, Bill Gates says the pandemic wiped out 25 years of vaccine progress in 25 weeks, https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-pandemic-wiped-out-25-years-progress-vaccines-2020-9. The link to the Gates Foundation report is here, https://www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/report/2020-report/#GlobalPerspective.

While the bulk of the report does not directly deal with trade, trade is certainly an important element in global collaborative efforts needed to help with the recovery from the pandemic — whether it is movement of medical goods including therapeutics and vaccines as they get developed, movement of agricultural goods, restoration of services critical for many economies – like travel and tourism, trade facilitation efforts, aid for trade, trade finance, development of rules on digital trade and more.

The report reviews the series of catastrophes flowing from the pandemic. On the economic catastrophe, the report references information from the International Monetary Fund that projects that the global economy will contract by some $12 trillion by the end of 2021 despite some $18 trillion in stimulus spending by governments to reduce the economic impact of the pandemic. “The last time this many countries were in recession at once was in 1870, literally two lifetimes ago.” (Page 7) The report notes that the ability of many countries to provide economic backstops to their economies is quite limited regardless of their economic growth in recent years or effectiveness of management of their governments. Thus, stimulus funding by G20 countries has averaged about 22% of GDP compared to just 3% for countries in sub-Suharan African countries. (Page 8)

The results of the economic impact from the pandemic has been a 7.1 percent increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty in just a few months after some twenty years of progress in reducing those numbers. The rising number of people in poverty are more likely to be women than men reflecting both women’s heavy participation in the informal sector and their handling of such a huge portion of unpaid care work. (Pages 9-10)

The report has a section entitled, “Innovating with Equity in Mind” on pages 14-17 which reviews the need to get the virus under control.

“To get it under control, to end the pandemic, the world should collaborate on three tasks as quickly as possible:

“1. Develop diagnostics and treatments to manage the pandemic in the short term and vaccines to end it in the medium term.

“2. Manufacture as many tests and doses as we can, as fast as we can.

“3. Deliver these tools equitably to those who need them most, no matter where they live or how much money they have.” (Page 14)

The report reviews the low percentage of vaccine candidates that historically have proven successful which supports the need for many candidates to be supported. The report also notes that even with the funding provided by some governments, there is a severe shortage of manufacturing capacity at the present time meaning a likely “longer pandemic, more deaths and a longer global recession.” (Page 15) The report includes the results of a model run by Northeastern University which looks at likely changes in the number of deaths if 2/3rds of vaccine doses are taken by high-income countries compared to the situation where vaccine doses are distributed to all countries based on population. The model’s projection is that a much higher proportion of deaths would be averted where there is equitable distribution of vaccine doses (61% of deaths averted) than if the high income countries take two-thirds of vaccines (33% of death averted). (Page 16)

The report notes that the costs of achieving equitable and affordable distribution of vaccines are high but tiny in comparison to the economic costs to the global economy.

“To be clear, funding these organizations and other key partners adequately will cost a lot of money — but not compared to the cost of a festering pandemic. Every single month, the global economy loses US$500 billion, and a collaborative approach will shave many months off of the world’s timeline. Countries have already committed US$18 trillion to economic stimulus to treat the symptoms of the pandemic. Now they need to invest a small portion of that total to root out its cause.” (Page 17)

The remainder of the report looks at projections for a series of sustainable development goals (SDGs) and particular elements of individual SDGs. The projections provide best case, worst case and a reference scenario as well as showing the 2030 target within the UN SDGs. Elements looked at include poverty, stunting, agriculture, maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, family planing, universal health coverage, smoking, vaccines, education, gender equality, sanitation, and financial services for the poor. (Pages 21-45) For nearly all of these issues, progress went from positive to negative in 2020 and the projections typically show even the optimistic scenario as being far off of the 2030 UN SDG target following the pandemic.

Conclusion

The 2020 Goalkeepers Report makes a convincing case that the extraordinary costs of the COVID-19 pandemic have harmed all countries and have generated greater inequality among countries and worsened the outlook for global reforms agreed to by nearly all nations in 2015. The end of the Introduction explains the need for a collaborative response and the costs of not pursuing one:

“There is no such thing as a national solution to a global crisis. All countries must work together to end the pandemic and begin rebuilding economies. The longer it takes us to realize that, the longer it will take (and the more it will cost) to get back on our feet.”

Hopefully the world is listening.

COVID-19 cases increase in last two weeks, setting new global record for new cases in fourteen day period.

In my last two posts of August 30 and August 16, I suggested that it appeared that the global spread of COVID-19 may have peaked or plateauted. See August 30, 2020, The global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases passes 25 million with more than 843,000 deaths – increased race to lock-up vaccine supplies, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/30/the-global-number-of-confirmed-covid-19-cases-passes-25-million-with-more-than-843000-deaths-increased-race-to-lock-up-vaccine-supplies/; August 16, 2020, Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic?  Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/16/is-the-world-at-the-peak-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-last-two-weeks-suggest-a-peaking-of-the-growth-of-global-infections-may-be-at-hand/. However, data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for the August 31-September 13 period shows a return to growth in new cases. The latest two weeks show total new cases of 3,780,469. This compares to the total new cases for the August 17-30 time period of 3,558,360, 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Total cases since the end of December 2019 are now just shy of 29 million.

The United States which has more confirmed cases (6,486,108) than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19 (193,701), had a third two-week decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period and was further reduced to 524,526 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period. The most recent period is still 28.21% higher than what had been the prior peak during April 13-26 of 409,102 new cases. Even with the significant reduction in new cases in the August 31-September 13 period, the United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases is continuing to rapidly increase, and were 1,211,623 in the last two weeks (the first country to have more than one million cases in a two week period). Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are also falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16, 529,057 new cases during August 17-30 and 469,534 new cases during August 31-September 13. India, the United States and Brazil accounted for an extraordinary 58.34% of the new global cases during the last two weeks and account for 54.01% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019. The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 22.52% of total confirmed cases since December 2019. With the continued declining numbers in the last two weeks while the overall total of new cases grew, the U.S. was still 13.87% of new cases during August 17-30 or roughly three times the U.S. share of global population.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues although there has been some significant resurgence of new cases in a number of developed countries during the summer vacation period with a renewal of at least some international travel. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Argentina (143,681), Colombia (109,050), Peru (83,397), Mexico (72,261), Iraq (59,332), Indonesia (45,562), the Philippines (44,732), South Africa (25,663) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Developed country resurgence in new cases

With the reopening of some international travel and with the end of the summer holiday season, there has been a noticeable surge of new cases in a number of developed countries, particularly in Western Europe. Spain showed the largest increase of a developed country that had gotten the COVID-19 spread under control until recently. For August 17-30, Spain saw an additional 96,473 new cases. The August 31-September 13 period saw a further large increase for Spain to 127,040 cases. France nearly doubled the large number it had experienced in the August 17-30 period (57,009 new cases) in the latest two weeks, with new cases reaching 101,381. Germany was up slightly from the prior two weeks (17,538 new cases) at 17,657 new cases. Italy added 19,444; Romania added 16,553; the United Kingdom added 32,422; the Netherlands increased by 11,374; Czechia increased by 11,307. Other countries in Europe (Russia and Ukraine) as well as Israel also saw significant additional new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (193,701) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (10,922) behind only India (15,088), though the U.S. number of new deaths declined from the prior two weeks while India’s number of new deaths continued to climb. The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population for the last two weeks were the following: Ecuador (24.91), Bolivia (20.49), Colombia (7.29), Argentina (6.48), Peru (6.11), Mexico (5.32), Brazil (5.09), Panama (4.05), Chile (3.77), Puerto Rico (3.65), Costa Rica (3.41) and the United States (3.32). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.02 deaths/100,000 population in the last two weeks.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through September 13, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 12.13 deaths. The ten countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Peru (94.10), Belgium (86.59), Bolivia (63.38), Spain (63.38), Chile (62.76), Ecuador (62.53), United Kingdom (62.45), Brazil (62.17), Italy (58.98), the United States (58.86). With the exception of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (the European countries were typically less than 1 death per 100,000).

Conclusion

The world in the first eight months of 2020 has struggled to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been some resurgence in many of these countries as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased and as schools reopen in many countries. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in parts of Africa. Since most new cases are now in developing countries, it is unclear how many of these countries will be able to handle a significant number of cases, whether their healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed and whether they will have the medical goods needed to handle the cases safely.

The August 31-September 13 period has seen the global number of new cases growing after six weeks of what appeared to be a peak or plateau. That is not good news for the world as in many parts of the world schools are reopening and fall and winter will bring greater time indoors likely resulting in continued growth in new cases.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. Still the results of the phase three trials are not yet in and as a temporary delay by AstraZeneca with its phase three trial shows, the timing of outcomes remains unknown though anticipated by the end of 2020 and first part of 2021. Still the rollout of vaccines if approved will take time to get large parts of the global population vaccinated. This will likely place a large cloud over much if not all of 2021 even in an optimistic scenario.

Whether the world will rise to the challenges in terms of improving access to medical goods, to maintaining an open trading system, to aiding not only national populations but ensuring assistance to the most vulnerable, and when vaccines are approved to ensuring an equitable and affordable access by all are open questions. If the world is not able to collaborate on these issues, the 2020s will be a lost decade and will threaten global security.

Making the WTO relevant to businesses and workers — the example of travel and tourism

Each of the eight candidates to become the next Director-General of the World Trade Organization correctly noted that the WTO’s relevance was at risk without significant reform and the ability to make the three pillars of the multilateral trading system function properly (negotiations, transparency/monitoring, dispute settlement). Some candidates talked about the need for the WTO to take actions that can be clearly seen by businesses, workers and consumers as being relevant to their lives. Most have also talked about the need for the WTO to review how it can provide greater resilience and predictability in the context of a pandemic like COVID-19. Some candidates were also asked questions about how the WTO can be more involved in helping the world achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) laid out by the UN in 2015 with a targeted completion date of 2030. Most candidates also commented on the need to improve coordination with other multilateral organizations to see that the capacity needs, financing and other elements often needed for progress on improving integration of smaller and less developed countries into the global trade system are met.

One issue that intersects all of the above needs/concerns is the travel and tourism sector. It is the third largest trade export sector, has been one of the hardest hit sectors globally by the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic with some 100-120 million jobs at risk this year with the potential closure of hundreds of thousands or millions of businesses – most mciro-, small- and medium enterprises (MSMEs) — and a sector that directly or indirectly is relevant to most of the UN’s SDGs. It is also a sector where there has been a great deal of activity by other multilateral organizations and the U.N.

While travel and tourism is important for nearly all countries, it has an outsized importance for small island developing states (SIDS), least developed countries (LDCs) and many countries in Africa. Thus, an effort by the WTO to prioritize actions that would help restore the international trade dimension of the travel and tourism sector and in a way that is supportive of the actions of other international organizations would have meaningful effects for businesses, workers and consumers globally.

United Nations, Policy Brief: COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism

On August 25, 2020, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres released a policy brief entitled COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism. The video of his statement when releasing the study can be found here, https://www.unwto.org/news/un-secretary-general-it-is-imperative-that-we-rebuild-the-tourism-sector (news release with video of statement towards bottom). The press release from the UN World Tourism Organization is copied below (emphasis in original).

UN SECRETARY-GENERAL: ‘IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT WE REBUILD THE TOURISM SECTOR IN A SAFE, EQUITABLE AND CLIMATE FRIENDLY MANNER

“Madrid, Spain, 25 August 2020 – As part of the wider UN response to COVID-19, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres released today a thematic brief on the impact the pandemic has had on tourism. Drawing on the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the lead author of the publication, it warns that as many as 100 million direct tourism jobs are at risk, and the massive drop in export revenues from tourism could reduce global GDP by as much as 2.8%. The brief stresses that tourism is an essential pillar of the SDGs and the most vulnerable workers and nations at greatest risk.

“Tourism has been among the hardest hit of all sectors by COVID-19 and no country has been unaffected, with restrictions on travel and a sudden drop in consumer demand leading to an unprecedented fall in international tourist numbers.

“The ‘COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism’ Policy Brief from the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, makes clear the impact that the pandemic has had on global tourism and how this affects everything from jobs and economies to wildlife conservation and the protection of cultural heritage.

“Mr Guterres said: that ‘It is imperative that we rebuild the tourism sector‘ in a ‘safe, equitable and climate friendly’ manner and so ‘ensure tourism regains its position as a provider of decent jobs, stable incomes and the protection of our cultural and natural heritage’. The UN Secretary-General further underscored that tourism is one of the world’s most important economic sectors, providing ‘livelihoods to hundreds of millions more’, while it’“boosts economies and enables countries to thrive’, and at
the same time allowing ‘people to experience some of the world’s cultural and natural riches and brings people closer to each other, highlighting our common humanity’.

“The Brief warns that the impacts of the pandemic on tourism are already placing conservation efforts in jeopardy. Citing case studies from around the world, it warns that the sudden fall in tourism revenues has cut off funding for biodiversity conservation and, with livelihoods at risk in and around protected areas, cases of poaching and looting are expected to rise. Again, the impact on biodiversity and ecosystems will be particularly critical in SIDS and LDCs. Furthermore, with 90% of World Heritages Sites having closed as a result of the pandemic, both tangible and intangible heritage is at risk in all parts of the world.


Five points priorities moving forward

“UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: ‘Tourism touches on nearly every part of our societies and is a cornerstone of growth and employment, both in developed and developing economies. The United Nations Secretary-General echoes the five key priority areas that UNWTO has identified for tourism to return and drive wider recovery, and both governments and the private sector now have a duty to put this plan into
action.’

“The Policy Brief notes that women, youth and workers in the informal economy are most at risk from job losses and business closures across the tourism sector. At the same time, destinations most reliant on tourism for jobs and economic growth, including SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are likely to be hardest hit, including through an anticipated fall in foreign direct investment (FDI).

“In addition to calling for strong support for the sector in mitigating these massive impacts, the Brief stresses that this crisis represents an opportunity to rethink tourism, including how it contributes to the SDGs. To this end, the Policy Brief provides Five Priorities for the restart of tourism, all aimed at ensuring a more resilient, inclusive and carbon neutral sector. These priorities are:

“1. Mitigate socio-economic impacts on livelihoods, particularly women’s employment and economic security.

“2. Boost competitiveness and build resilience, including through economic
diversification and encouragement of MSMEs.

“3. Advance innovation and digital transformation of tourism

“4. Foster sustainability and green growth

“5. Enhanced focus on coordination, and responsible leadership

“Alongside penholder UNWTO, a further 11 United Nations agencies contributed to the Policy Brief, highlighting the sector’s unique importance and outreach.”

The policy brief is embedded below.

SG-Policy-Brief-on-COVID-and-Tourism

There are a set of slides that lay out what is at stake for the world from the impact of COVID-19 on tourism. International tourist arrivals are down 56% in the January – May time period for the world, with the range by region being between 47% (Americas and Africa) and 60% (Asia and the Pacific). The loss in revenue in five months was US$320 billion with an annual projection of lost revenue from US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion. The most optimistic projection has international tourism revenues declining to a level last seen in 2003.

The small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs) most at risk include 21 which have international tourism exports accounting for 50-90% of total exports of goods and services and an additional 20 countries where international tourism exports are between 30 and 50% of total exports of goods and services. Macao (China), Palau, Bahamas, Saint-Lucia, Maldives, Turks and Caicos, and Aruba are all 80% or higher; St. Maarteen and Anguila are 70-79%; Cabo Verde, Antigua & Barbuda, Sao Tome & Principe, Barbados, Vanuatu, and Samoa are all 60-69%; Jamaica, Montenegro, Gambia, Fiji, Comoros, and Dominica are all 50-59%; Tonga, Ethiopa, Belize, Lebanon, Montserrat, Georgia, French Polynesia, and Jordan are all 40-49%; and Mauritus, Seychelles, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Bermuda, Albania, St. Vincent & Grenadines, Croatia, Tanzania, Curacao, Grenada, and St. Kitts and Nevis are all 30-39%.

One of slides shows that women make up 54% of the workforce of accommodation and food services supporting the point that women are among the most vulnerable in terms of job security during the pandemic.

The slides are embedded below.

UN-Tourism-Policy-Brief-Visuals

Conclusion

As WTO Members look at their responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in general with a focus on export restraints and other restrictions, consider how trade can speed economic recovery and consider steps that should be taken to reduce the challenges should there be another health pandemic in the future, it is important that the Members consider the travel and tourism sector with a sense of urgency. Cooperation and coordination among WTO Members on when and how to reopen international travel and other needs of travelers, businesses, workers and host governments is obviously critical. Also coordination with the WHO, UNWTO, IMF, World Bank and regional development banks is critical to see that the special needs of SIDS, LDCs and the MSMEs are identified and addressed.

COVID-19 pandemic — loss of work in first half of 2020 and projections for remainder of the year

The International Labour Organization (ILO) puts out the “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work”. The most recent edition (fifth) is dated 30 June 2020. See https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_749399.pdf. The OECD also puts out an annual OECD Employment Outlook. The 2020 publication covers data through May 2020. OECD(2020), OECD Employment Outlook 2020: Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/1686c758-3n. For purposes of this post, I am limiting my review to the ILO Monitor.

The ILO Monitor shows the loss of working hours by quarter in the first half of 2020 both globally and by region and provides estimates of work loss in the second half of the year using a baseline scenario based on the OECD June Economic Outlook and an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario. The ILO Monitor stresses the disproportionate impact that the pandemic has had on women. The hours of work lost are translated into number of job equivalents using a 40 hour work week and a 48 hour work week. The figures are staggering in terms of equivalent job losses as laid out in the following table (using 48 hour work week)(taken from Table 1 on page 6):

REGION2020 1ST QTR employment loss (millions)% hours lost2020 2ND QTR employment loss (millions)% hours lost
world1555.440014.0
Africa92.44512.1
Americas113.07018.3
Arab States23.1813.2
Asia and the Pacific1257.123513.5
Europe and Central Asia113.44513.9

Looking at the fourth quarter of 2020, depending on whether there is a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, a faster than expected recovery or the baseline projection, the number of job equivalents lost are estimated at 140 million jobs using the baseline, 34 million jobs using the optimistic scenario and 340 million jobs using the pessimistic scenario.

Working through the data in the ILO Monitor shows a greater impact on women from the economic contraction flowing from the pandemic. Earlier Monitors had looked at the impact on informal workers and on young workers, groups also disproportionately adversely affected. The Fifth Edition identifies four main ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic is disproportionately affecting women workers:

“First, a large proportion of women work in sectors severely affected by the crisis.” (page 8)

“Second, women in domestic work have been highly vulnerable to containment measures.” (page 9)

“Thirdly, the overwhelming majority of workers in the health and social work sector are women.” (Page 9)

“Fourthly, during the crisis, the unequal distribution of increased care demands affects women disproportionately.” (Page 9)

The ILO Monitor ends with what are viewed as the Key challenges ahead (pages 15-16):

“Key challenges ahead

“Despite the extraordinary and often unprecedented measures introduced around the world, the damage done by the COVID-19 crisis to labour markets is enormous and leaves policymakers to confront major policy challenges. Actual labour market outcomes for the rest of 2020 and beyond will depend on the choices they make, as well as on the pandemic’s future
trajectory. Moreover, the decisions taken in the near future are likely to have long-lasting implications for the world of work.

“Countries will not all face the same situation. The gravity of the issues they must resolve and the tools and resources that they can bring to the task will vary considerably. But a number of key challenges will have to be addressed by most, if not all, of them.

First, finding the right balance and sequence of health and economic and social policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes. From the onset of the pandemic, priority has had to be given, with varying degrees of success, to containing and eliminating the spread of the virus. While this has had major economic and social costs, it is the necessary precondition for sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, policymakers are increasingly called upon to make tough calls about the timing of the reopening of workplaces, the health protocols to be observed in them, and the continuation, or not, of support to enterprises and workers that are unable to resume normal activities. Such decisions are made all the more difficult by the costs to the State and to private actors of the prolongation of restrictions, the concern that premature action could precipitate a second wave of the pandemic, and the increasing pressure of public opinion.

Secondly, implementing and sustaining policy interventions on the necessary scale at a time when resources are increasingly constrained.
General acknowledgement of the need to do ‘whatever it takes’ to sustain economic activity, jobs, enterprises and incomes in the course of the pandemic has led governments to set aside prior fiscal and monetary targets.
Many countries will be faced with high levels of debt and highly constrained monetary policy options even if the pandemic recedes in the coming months. The lasting damage inflicted on labour markets, and the difficult global economic conditions that will prevail, indicate that supportive policies would need to be maintained to sustain
recovery, but this will be in a context of unprecedented fiscal and monetary conditions. Premature fiscal consolidation, such as that which followed the financial crisis of 2008–09, would risk destabilizing already weak labour markets.

Thirdly, supporting vulnerable and hard-hit groups, and generating fairer labour market outcomes. The pandemic has laid bare some of the worst deficits and inequities of the world of work and made them worse. Women, young people and informal workers were all severely disadvantaged before the onset of the crisis, and they are among those who have suffered some of its most severe consequences. Similarly, public
opinion has been awakened to the often difficult and undervalued work of groups of the labour force – notably health and care workers, cleaners and
domestic workers – whose contribution has been, and remains, essential to overcoming the pandemic. Unless explicit attention is paid to improving the position of the most disadvantaged and vulnerable, the recovery processes could aggravate existing injustices.

Fourthly, securing international solidarity and support especially for emerging and developing countries. Whatever the achievements of countries individually, the overall response to the global COVID-19 crisis has been characterized by a marked deficit of international cooperation. The evidence presented in this edition of the ILO Monitor shows that the enormous volume of resources deployed by high income countries to combat the pandemic has simply not been available to others. This has a major impact on the capacity of developing and emerging countries to protect their citizens and curb the pandemic, which, in turn, will impair the prospects for all countries. The rhetoric of the need for a global response to the global crisis of COVID-19 needs to be translated into concrete measures to assist countries with limited fiscal space, in particular through multi- lateral action to deliver concessional finance and debt relief.

Fifthly, strengthening social dialogue and respect for rights at work. In many cases, social dialogue – bringing together governments, employers and workers – has proved its worth in shaping effective, balanced and acceptable policy responses at the sectoral and national level. Social dialogue can likewise help to shape sustainable recovery paths in the period ahead. People in most countries have been subject to far-reaching restrictions on their personal freedoms during the pandemic, which has generally been considered necessary and legitimate. However, such acceptance depends on them being proportionate, appropriate and limited in time. The COVID-19 pandemic provides no justification for any restrictions on fundamental rights at work, as enshrined in international labour standards, and upholding these rights fully is a precondition for effective social dialogue.”

The Fifth edition of the ILO Monitor is embedded below.

wcms_749399

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost a global health crisis. Much of the focus on the economic consequences of countries’ efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus focus on the contraction of trade, contraction of GDP and the trillions of dollars that have been pumped into economies to reduce the negative economic effects. But the toll on workers has obviously been enormous. The ILO Monitor provides some easy to understand tables on the sweeping labor consequences and the challenges to recovery and fair treatment to those most adversely affected.

The global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases passes 25 million with more than 843,000 deaths — increased race to lock up vaccine supplies

In my post of August 16, I suggested that it appeared that the global spread of COVID-19 may have peaked in the August 3-16 period. See August 16, 2020, Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic?  Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/16/is-the-world-at-the-peak-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-last-two-weeks-suggest-a-peaking-of-the-growth-of-global-infections-may-be-at-hand/. Data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control show total new cases for the August 17-30 time period to be 3,558,360 compared to 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Thus, global new cases seem to have peaked or to have reached a plateau.

The United States which has more confirmed cases than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19, had a second two-week decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period. The most recent period is still 46.76% higher than what had been the prior peak during April 13-26 of 409,102 new cases. Even with the significant reduction in new cases in the August 17-30 period, the United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases is continuing to rise and were 953,051 in the last two weeks. Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are also falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16 and to 529,057 new cases during August 17-30. India, the United States and Brazil accounted for an extraordinary 58.5% of the new global cases during the last two weeks and account for 53.39% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019. The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 23.82% of total confirmed cases since December 2019. With the declining numbers in the last two weeks, the U.S. was still 16.87% of new cases during August 17-30 or roughly four times the U.S. share of global population.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues although there has been some significant resurgence of new cases in a number of developed countries during the summer vacation period with a renewal of at least some international travel. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Colombia (143,225), Peru (113,632), Argentina (109,585), Mexico (73,998), Iraq (54,863), the Philippines (55,213), South Africa (38,898) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Spain showed the largest increase of a developed country that had gotten the COVID-19 spread under control until recently. For August 17-30, Spain saw an additional 96,473 new cases. France added 57,009 new cases; Germany saw 17,538 new cases. Other countries in Europe as well as Japan and Korea also saw significant additional new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (182,779) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (13,298) behind only India (13,518). The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population were the following: Colombia (8.45), Bolivia (8.12), Peru (7.79), Brazil (6.27), Argentina (6.12), Mexico (5.70), Panama (5.58),Chile (4.15), United States (4.04). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.01 deaths/100,000 population.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through August 30, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 11.10 deaths. The nine countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Belgium (86.34), Peru (87.99), United Kingdom (62.27), Spain (61.81), Chile (59.00), Italy (58.77), Brazil (57.08), Sweden (which did not impose any restrictions)(56.90), the United States (55.54). With the exception of Brazil, Chile, Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (all the European countries were less than 1 death per 100,000).

Race for vaccines

There have been many press articles looking at efforts by the United States, by the EU and by others to lock up large quantities of vaccines from companies whose vaccines are in third phase trials for early availability to their populations. See, e.g., European Commission, 14 August 2020, Coronavirus: Commission reaches first agreement on a potential vaccine, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1438. The Russian Federation has released a vaccine that did not go through a third phase trial and has received interest from some developing countries. After international criticism, the Russian Federation is now pursuing Phase 3 trials. AP, Putin touts Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine as effective and safe, August 27, 2020, https://apnews.com/f505b2fe730b56b558b8f76bf1932af0.

China has been promising some trading partners preferential access to its vaccines. See, e.g., Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2020, China Seeks to Use Access to COVID-19 Vaccines for Diplomacy, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-to-use-access-to-covid-19-vaccines-for-diplomacy-11597690215

For the Philippines, their President has been shopping with the U.S., Russia and China for early access. See, e.g., Nikkei Asia, August 11, 2020, Duterte takes Russia’s offer of COVID vaccine after asking China, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Duterte-takes-Russia-s-offer-of-COVID-vaccine-after-asking-China.

Beyond the national or regional efforts to secure priority for vaccines when developed, joint efforts continue as part of the WHO effort to ensure that vaccines and other medical goods relevant to addressing COVID-19 are available equitably to all people and at affordable prices. See, e.g., European Union, Coronavirus Global Response, https://global-response.europa.eu/index_en.

So while it may not be surprising to see countries looking first and foremost about the health of their own citizens, the World Health Organization has warned that no one is safe until all are safe from the COVID-19. The next six months to a year will be a test of whether the efforts of many to provide funding and other resources to ensure greater equitable access to vaccines at affordable prices can coexist with national efforts to prioritize their own citizens.

Conclusion

The world in the first eight months of 2020 is struggling to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been some resurgence in many of these countries as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased and as schools reopen in many countries. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in parts of Africa. Since most new cases are now in developing countries, it is unclear how many of these countries will be able to handle a significant number of cases, whether their healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed and whether they will have the medical goods needed to handle the cases safely.

August has seen the global number of new cases peak and possibly start to decline. That is some good news although the number of new cases on a daily basis continues to strain the global supply system.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. While this puts a lot of money at risk should one or more of the vaccines in trials not prove safe or effective, it saves a great deal of time in getting product to market if approved. In a global economy in which least developed countries, small and vulnerable economies and other developing countries are experiencing significant economic challenges because of travel restrictions and trade contractions flowing from efforts to address the pandemic, achieving equitable and affordabale access to vaccines when available is a global imperative. Time will tell if the imperative is achieved or not.

WTO Secretariat Information Note on COVID-19 and Agriculture

On Wednesday, August 26, the WTO Secretariat put out an Information Note entitled “COVID-19 and Agriculture: A Story of Resilience”. It is one in an impressive line of information notes providing useful information on how COVID-19 is affecting global trade in goods and services. The full array of information notes published to date can be found on the WTO webpage, https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm. Wednesday’s Information Note is embedded below.

agric_report_e

The note focuses on the fact that trade in agricultural goods have fared better than total trade in goods during the pandemic. The Secretariat, at the time of preparing the Information Note, had access to trade data through April 2020 and for May 2020 for some countries. A key summary paragraph from the note states:

“Trade in agricultural products has been more resilient than overall trade. This reflects the essential nature of food and the resulting relative income-inelasticity of demand for it, as well as the fact that most agricultural trade (notably cereals and oilseeds) takes place in bulk marine shipments that have not been subject to major disruptions. While overall merchandise trade fell sharply in the first half of 2020, agricultural and food exports increased by 2.5 per cent during the first quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2019, with an increase of 3.3 per cent in March, followed by a 0.6 per cent increase in April, although the preliminary data for May indicate a small decrease (-1.3 per cent) compared to 2019.2

“2 Data for May 2020 were available for a limited set of 64 countries at the time of writing.”

Importantly, while some governments imposed export restrictions on some agricultural products early in response to COVID-19, some of those restrictions have been lifted and there have been other initiatives to liberalize trade in agriculture.

However, the note reviews the challenges for many people to get adequate food despite food stocks and good harvests. A prior August 15 post of mine reviewed the challenges facing many nations in accessing adequate food supplies in 2020. See August 15, 2020,  Food security and COVID-19 – how World Trade Organization Members could fill a pressing need, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/15/food-security-and-covid-19-how-world-trade-organization-members-could-fill-a-pressing-need/

The Information Note’s conclusion provides a note of caution on agricultural trade despite the greater resilience of such trade over other trade in goods:

“The COVID-19 crisis has had a major impact on the global economy and trade. Countries are still fighting the pandemic, and its repercussions for food supply chains are still unfolding. While agricultural trade has proven more resilient than trade in other goods owing to the essential nature of food products, additional disruptions to supply chains could start to undermine this resilience, with damaging consequences.

“There is currently no supply-related reason why the ongoing health crisis should turn into a food crisis. However, disruptions to food supply chains constitute a risk for global food security. Governments’ trade policy choices will play a major role in shaping how the situation evolves.

“Transparency remains crucial for food security. Incomplete or insufficient information creates uncertainty that, in turn, leads to sub-optimal policy decisions. Sharing timely information on trade-related measures, as well as making information available on production, consumption, stocks and food prices, would help markets function efficiently and contribute to ensuring global food security.”

U.S. example on agricultural exports suggests greater contraction in 2nd quarter of 2020

U.S. trade data are available through June 2020. At least for the United States, U.S. domestic exports of agricultural products (HS Chapters 01-24) through June 2020 were off from 2019 levels (which were themselves below 2018 levels). On a monthly basis, the contraction worsens month by month after February as the below data on U.S. domestic exports of agricultural goods show (exports are FAS values in billions of US $):

1st half 2018$69.3
1st half 2019$65.6
1st half 2020$64.0
% change 2019-2020-2.50%
% change Jan. 2019-2020+0.13%
% change Feb. 2019-2020+5.04%
% change March 2019-2020-1.46%
% change April 2019-2020-3.95%
% change May 2019-2020-7.17%
% change June 2019-2020-7.67%

U.S. domestic exports of agricultural goods show dramatic differences in trends in 2020 based on the 2-digit HS chapter involved. Chapter 02, meat and edible meat offal, increased in the first half of 2020 by 8.4%; Chapter 04, dairy produce and other products, increased 17.27%Chapter 10, cereals, increased by 1.13%; Chapter 15, animal fats and oils and their cleavage products, increased 23.19%; Chapter 23, residue and waste from the food industry, prepared animal feed, increased 2.43%; the other nineteen Chapters showed declines up to 15.17%.

For the United States, the U.S.-China Phase 1 Agreement appears likely to improve U.S. agricultural exports in the last months of 2020 and hence may change the U.S. trade trend for agricultural goods in the third and fourth quarters. See August 8, 2020,  U.S.-China Phase 1 trade agreement – review of U.S. domestic exports through June 2020, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/08/u-s-china-phase-1-trade-agreement-review-of-u-s-domestic-exports-through-june-2020/.

But the above data for the U.S. suggests that global agricultural trade may be harder hit in the second quarter than the Secretariat Information Note tracks through April (and for partial data for May). All of which simply says the Information Note’s conclusion that transparency and accuracy and timeliness of data are critical at the present time to prevent the COVID-19 health crisis from becoming a food security crisis of even greater proportions than is already projected by the World Food Programme.

Recent Congressional Research Service report, Global Economic Effects of COVID-19

Governments around the world have been struggling with the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. Multilateral institutions generate a great deal of information on the pandemic and its effects and many countries do as well.

On August 21, 2020, the Congressional Research Service released an updated report on Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, Report No. R46270, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46270.

While the United States went through a huge resurgence of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the June-August 2020 time period, there have been smaller resurgences in a number of other developed countries in the July – August time frame including Australia, Japan, Korea, France, Germany, Spain and others. At the same time, the pandemic is raging in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in India, in some parts of Asia and increasingly in a number of African countries. While it is likely that the world total on new cases peaked in the two weeks ending August 16, the two weeks that end on August 30 will be very close to those numbers (3.6 million cases),

Most global economic outlook projections have been premised on the pandemic’s worst economic effects being in the 2nd quarter of 2020 with a strong recovery in the third quarter and a continued rebound through 2021. Those projections are increasingly at risk as major economies struggle to return to normal without the need for further economic restrictions to address new surges of the pandemic. In the United States, despite efforts by the House of Representatives to pass legislation several months ago to continue the stimulus to the economy to help those unemployed and avoid massive evictions, help schools prepare for the fall season and state and local governments deal with the massive shortfall in revenue among other matters, the Senate didn’t take up legislation until late July and had trouble agreeing on any additional funding. The impasse between the Democrats and the Republicans and White House has led to limited if any support in August and heading into the fall with the potential for millions of additional job losses and reopenings that are not adequately prepared. The opening of schools in recent weeks has had a number of challenges and many schools are proceeding virtually in an effort to remain safe but putting downward pressure on the economy. Thus, the global challenges are likely to worsen in the remaining months of 2020 making the global economic recovery slower and later than has been hoped.

The first pages of the CRS report (pages 5-8, Overview (excluding Table 1)) do an excellent job of reviewing the challenges for the United States and the world and re copied below.

“Overview

“The World Health Organization (WHO) first declared COVID-19 a world health emergency in January 2020. Since then, the emergency has evolved into a global public health and economic crisis that has affected the $90 trillion global economy beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Governments are attempting to balance often-competing policy objectives between addressing the public health crisis and economic considerations that include, but are not limited to these:

“ Confronting ballooning budget deficits weighed against increasing spending to support unemployed workers and social safety nets.

“ Providing financial support for national health systems that are under pressure to develop vaccines while also funding efforts to care for and safeguard citizens.

“ Implementing monetary and fiscal policies that support credit markets and sustain economic activity, while also assisting businesses under financial distress.

“ Implementing fiscal policies to stimulate economic activity, while consumers in developed economies sharply increase their savings as households face limited spending opportunities, or a form of involuntary saving, and concerns over their jobs, incomes, and the course of their economies, or precautionary saving.

“ Intervention by central banks and monetary authorities generally in sovereign debt and corporate bond markets to stabilize markets and insure liquidity are raising concerns among some analysts that this activity is compromising the ability of the markets to perform their traditional functions of pricing risk and allocating capital.

“ Fiscal and monetary policies that have been adopted to date to address the immediate impact of the health crisis compared with the mix of such policies between assisting households, firms, or state and local governments that may be needed going forward should the health and economic crises persist.

“Policymakers and financial and commodity market participants generally have been hopeful of a global economic recovery starting in the third quarter of 2020, assuming there is not a second wave of infections. Some forecasts, however, raise the prospects that the pandemic could negatively affect global economic growth more extensively and for a longer period of time with a slow, drawn-out recovery. Without a quick resolution of the health crisis, the economic crisis may persist longer than most forecasters have assumed and require policymakers to weigh the most effective mix of additional fiscal and monetary policies that may be required without the benefit of a relevant precedent to follow. Additional measures may have to balance the competing requirements of households, firms, and state and local governments. Various U.S. States reversed course in late June to impose or reimpose social distancing guidelines and close down businesses that had begun opening as a result of a rise in new confirmed cases of COVID-19, raising the prospect of a delayed recovery.

“In its July 29 policy statement and subsequent press conference, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that the rise in COVID-19 cases in the United States since mid-June was weighing down economic growth and that, ‘The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.’

“Differences in policy approaches between countries are threatening to inflict longer-term damage to the global economy by impairing international political, trade, and economic relations, particularly between countries that promote nationalism and those that argue for a coordinated international response to the pandemic. Policy differences are also straining relations between developed and developing economies and between northern and southern members of the Eurozone, challenging alliances and conventional concepts of national security, and raising questions about the future of global leadership.

“In some countries, the pandemic has elevated the importance of public health as a national security issue and as a national economic priority on a par with traditional national security concerns such as terrorism, cyberattacks, and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.1 The pandemic-related economic and human costs could have long-term repercussions for economies through the tragic loss of life and job losses that derail careers and permanently shutter businesses. Fiscal and monetary measures implemented to prevent a financial crisis and sustain economic activity may also inadvertently be adding to income and wealth disparities. Within some countries, the economic fallout may be adding to widening racial and socio-economic cleavages and increasing social unrest. In speaking about these costs for Americans, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on May 19, 2020,

“‘Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs, reversing nearly 10 years of job gains. This precipitous drop in economic activity has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.2’

“The virus was first diagnosed in Wuhan, China, but has been detected in over 200 countries and all U.S. states.3 In early March 2020, the focal point of infections shifted from China to Europe, especially Italy, but by April, the focus had shifted to the United States, where the number of infections was accelerating. The infection has sickened more than 20.2 million people, about one-fourth in the United States, with over 800,000 fatalities. At one point, more than 80 countries had closed their borders to arrivals from countries with infections, ordered businesses to close, instructed their populations to self-quarantine, and closed schools to an estimated 1.5 billion children.4

“Over the 22-week period from mid-March to mid-August 2020, 56.3 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance.5 On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of insured unemployed workers was 14.8 million in mid-August, down from a peak of 25 million in mid-May, as indicated in Table 1. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs in the week


1 Harris, Shane and Missy Ryan, To Prepare for the Next Pandemic, the U.S. Needs to Change its National Security Priorities, Experts Say, The Washington Post, June 16, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/to-prepare-for-the-next-pandemic-the-us-needs-to-change-its-national-security-priorities-experts-say/2020/06/16/b99807c0-aa9a-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html.
2 Powell, Jerome H. Coronavirus and CARES Act, Testimony before the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, May 19, 2020.
3 “Mapping the Spread of the COVID-19 in the U.S. and Worldwide,” Washington Post Staff, Washington Post, March 4, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/22/mapping-spread-new-COVID-19/?arc404=true.
4 “The Day the World Stopped: How Governments Are Still Struggling to Get Ahead of the COVID-19,” The Economist, March 17, 2020. https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/17/governments-are-still-struggling-to-get-ahead-of-the-COVID-19.
5 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, Department of Labor, August 20, 2020. https://www.dol.gov/; Romm, Tony and Jeff Stein, 2.4 Million Americans Filed Jobless Claims Last Week, Bringing Nine Week Total to 38.6 Million, The Washington Post, May 21, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/21/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/

ending August 1, totaled 28 million, up from 1.7 million in the comparable week in 2019. The insured unemployment rate was 10.2%, also down from the peak reached in early May. On May 8, 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 20 million Americans lost their jobs in April 2020, pushing the total number of unemployed Americans to 23 million,6 out of a total civilian labor force of 158 million. The increase pushed the national unemployment rate to 14.7% (with some caveats), the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.7 On June 6, BLS reported that nonfarm employment increased by 2.5 million in May, reducing the total number of unemployed Americans to 21 million8 and pushing the unemployment rate down to 13.5%, again with some caveats.9 On July 2, the BLS also released data on the employment situation in June, indicating that nonfarm payroll rose by 4.8 million, lowering the unemployment rate to 11.5%; on August 7, the BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.8 Million in July, lowering the number of unemployed individuals to 16.4 million and the unemployment rate to 10.2%.10

“Preliminary data also indicate that U.S. GDP fell by 9.5% in the second quarter of 2020 from the previous quarter, but at an annualized rate of 33%, the largest quarterly decline in U.S. GDP recorded over the past 70 years.11 In its May 27 Beige Book analysis, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reported that economic activity had fallen sharply in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts.12

“In Europe, governments have attempted a phased reopening of businesses.13 After several months of data indicating an economic rebound had begun in the Eurozone, surveys of business activity in August reportedly indicated that the recovery was slowing amid a rise in new COVID-19 cases and countries reimposing new quarantines and lockdowns in various parts of the Euro area.14 Industrial production across the Eurozone as a whole fell by 17% in April, raising the annual decline to 28%, surpassing the contraction experienced during the global financial crisis.15 The European Commission’s July 8, 2020, forecast projected that EU economic growth in 2020 could contract by 8.3% and only partially recover in 2021.16 In addition, a July forecast by the European Commission forecasts a larger drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 among European economies than it had forecasted in its spring report, with a less vibrant recovery in 2021. Second quarter data indicate that economic growth in the EU contracted by 11.7% from the first quarter and by 14.1% compared with the same quarter in 2019.17 Second quarter data indicate the UK economy contracted by 20.4%, the largest quarterly decline on record.

“After protracted talks, European leaders agreed on July 21 to a new €750 billion (about $859 billion) pandemic economic assistance package to support European economies. Second quarter data also indicated that employment among the EU countries fell by 2.6%, or 5.5 million jobs. The jobs data, however, does not include roughly 45 million people, or a third of the workforce in Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and Spain, currently covered by employment protection programs.18 Similarly, Japan reported on August 17 that its economy contracted by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020, compared with the previous quarter, or at an annual rate of 27.8%.19

“On May 27, 2020, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that the Eurozone economy could contact by 8% to 12% in 2020, a level of damage to the Eurozone economy that Lagarde characterized as being unsurpassed in peacetime.20 Foreign investors have pulled an estimated $26 billion out of developing Asian economies not including more than $16 billion out of India, increasing concerns about a major economic recession in Asia. Some estimates indicate that 29 million people in Latin America could fall into poverty, reversing a decade of efforts to narrow income inequality. Some analysts are also concerned that Africa, after escaping the initial spread of infections, is now facing a sharp increase in rates of infection outside South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, and Ghana, where most of the infections have occurred to date.21

“1 Harris, Shane and Missy Ryan, To Prepare for the Next Pandemic, the U.S. Needs to Change its National Security Priorities, Experts Say, The Washington Post, June 16, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/to-prepare-for-the-next-pandemic-the-us-needs-to-change-its-national-security-priorities-experts-say/2020/06/16/b99807c0-aa9a-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html.

“2 Powell, Jerome H. Coronavirus and CARES Act, Testimony before the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, May 19, 2020.

“3 ‘Mapping the Spread of the COVID-19 in the U.S. and Worldwide,’ Washington Post Staff, Washington Post, March 4, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/22/mapping-spread-new-COVID-19/?arc404=true.

“4 ‘The Day the World Stopped: How Governments Are Still Struggling to Get Ahead of the COVID-19,’ The Economist, March 17, 2020. https://www.economist.com/international/2020/03/17/governments-are-still-struggling-to-get-ahead-of-the-COVID-19.

“5 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, Department of Labor, August 20, 2020. https://www.dol.gov/; Romm, Tony and Jeff Stein, 2.4 Million Americans Filed Jobless Claims Last Week, Bringing Nine Week Total to 38.6 Million, The Washington Post, May 21, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/21/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/.

“6 This total does not include 10.9 million workers who were working part time not by choice and 9.9 million individuals who were seeking employment.

“7 The Employment Situation-April 2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 8, 2020. https://www.bls.gov/.

“8 This total does not include 10.6 million workers who were working part time not by choice and 9.4 million individuals who were seeking employment.

“9 The Employment Situation-May 2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 5, 2020, https://www.bls.gov/. BLS indicated that some individuals were misclassified in April and May. Instead of being classified as unemployed, they were misclassified as employed, but absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures. If such individuals had been classified as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 5 percentage points higher in April.

“10 The Employment Situation-July 2020, Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 7, 2020. https://www.bls.gov/. The unemployment number does not include 8.4 million workers who were working part time not by choice and 7.7 million individuals seeking employment. In addition, BLS indicated that some workers had been misclassified as employed, but should have been classified as unemployed, which would have raised the rate of unemployment by one percentage point.

“11 Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update, Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 30, 2020. https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update.

“12 The Beige Book, Federal Reserve System, May 27, 2020. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beige-book-default.htm.

“13 Stott, Michael, Coronavirus Set to Push 29m Latin Americans Into Poverty, Financial Times, April 24, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/3bf48b80-8fba-410c-9bb8-31e33fffc3b8; Hall, Benjamin, Coronavirus Pandemic Threatens Livelihoods of 59m European Workers, Financial Times, April 19, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/36239c82-84ae-4cc9-89bc-8e71e53d6649, Romei, Valentina and Martin Arnold, Eurozone Economy Shrinks by Fastest Rate on Record, Financial Times, April 30, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/dd6cfafa-a56d-48f3-a9fd-aa71d17d49a8.

“14 Arnold, Martin, Eurozone Economic Rebound is Losing Steam, Surveys Suggest, Financial Times, August 21, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/cc4fa3df-40e7-4e19-be9f-9d01efb74f69. Chazan, Guy and Anna Gross, Europe Battles to Contain Surge in Coronavirus Cases. Financial Times, July 29, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/bcddc297-b7f2-444d-908f-54e8ce6f4f98.

“15 Arnold, Martin, Eurozone Industrial Production Falls by Record 17.1% in April, Financial Times, June 12, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/e3301cd6-27ce-35f0-829a-c6613849b378.

“16 European Economic Forecast Summer 2020, European Commission, July 8, 2020.

“17 Newsrelease, Eurostat, August 14, 2020.

“18 Ben Hall, Ben, Delphine Strauss, and Daniel Dombey, Millions of European Jobs at Risk When Furlough Support Ends, Financial Times, August 14, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/0f01a9ed-5b15-4e2d-921c-6eed7a80d0bd.

“19 Quarterly Estimates of GDP for April – June 2020 (First Preliminary Estimates), Cabinet Office, August 17, 2020.

“20 Arnold, Martin, Coronavirus Hit to Eurozone Economy Set to Dwarf Financial Crisis, Financial Times, May 27, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/a01424e8-089d-4618-babe-72f88184ac57.

“21 Pilling, David, The Pandemic is Getting Worse: Africa Prepares for Surge in Infections, Financial Times, July 20, 2020.” https://www.ft.com/content/1b3274ce-de3b-411d-8544-a024e64c3542.

The complete CRS report is embedded below.

CRS-8-21-2020-Global-Economic-Effects-of-COVID-19

Conclusion

The world is going through the worst economic contraction since World War II. The pandemic has affected the health of people around the world, with close to 24 million confirmed cases and likely a multiple of that considering the extent of infections in people without symptoms. More than 800,000 people have died, a number which is also likely to be low based on the number of people who die but never are hospitalized and thus not likely reported as COVID-19 related in many countries.

Most developed countries have followed the tried and true methodology of aggressive testing, tracing, and quarantining to slow the spread of the pandemic and then drastically reduce the number of new cases. For most developed countries this included some form of stay at home orders, social distancing, mask wearing with severe negative effects on many economic sectors. The United States has largely been alone among developed countries in having a generally poor, unorganized and mixed message response to the spread of the coronavirus. Yet other developed countries, as they have reopened, have experienced some of the rebound in cases that the United States experienced on steroids these last three months. The result has been deep economic contraction in the second quarter of 2020 and slower economic recovery likely in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

At the same time, developing countries have become the center of the pandemic in recent months and may face greater health care challenges because of their infrastructure. These countries are facing severe economic contractions as well both from internal demand declines and from international market contractions.

While the billions being poured into development of vaccines and therapeutics will hopefully result in tools to reduce and then stop the spread of the pandemic, 2021 is the early side of likely massive amounts of vaccines and therapeutics being available.

With the ongoing economic challenges, worsening debt structure of nearly all countries and the collapse of many businesses and employment (e.g., travel and tourism employment is projected to drop by 100-120 million jobs in 2020), the world needs greater coordination of recovery strategies, increased attention on keeping global markets open (and limiting export restraints) and renewed attention to see that vaccines and therapeutics are equitably available to all at affordable prices as new products become available.

Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic? Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand

Much of the world recorded sharp contractions in GDP during the second quarter as countries restricted travel, issued mandatory stay at home orders and took other steps to try to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries have been easing restrictions in the last several months that were imposed typically in March. The hoped for revival of the global economy is being slowed by the continued high incidence of new COVID-19 cases, the resurgence of cases (albeit so far at low levels) following reopening actions in many of the countries who had gotten control of the virus. In a number of countries, schools are reopening presenting additional challenges for governments in trying to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. News reports continue to be promising that one or more vaccines may be approved by the end of 2020 or early 2021, and the Russian Federation has gone into production of a vaccine which reportedly has not undergone a phase three trial.

One question of potential importance in mid-August is has the world gotten to the peak of the number of new cases during the last two weeks or will the number of new cases resume an upward trajectory in the coming weeks?

The world has seen a rapid growth of new cases during the March – July period. As recently as the two week period of May 11-May 24, the total new cases globally in the two week period was 1.28 million. The next two weeks (May 25-June 7) showed new cases of 1.57 million. June 8-June 21 recorded 1.93 million new cases; June 22 – July 5 added 2.46 million. July 6-July 19 added 3.02 million new cases. July 20-August 2 added 3.57 million new cases. The data for the last two weeks, August 3-16 added 3.62 million new cases. So the rate of growth is slowing. While the number of new cases in the most recent two weeks was nearly three times as many as recorded in mid-May, in the last two weeks, the growth was only 1.4%.

The United States for the first time since early June has seen the number of new cases fall from the prior two weeks, although the new cases in August 3-16 were still the second largest (740,721) after only India (838,959) and remain two and a half times as high as the May 25-June 7 period (297, 391) and were 81.5% higher than the original peak figure (409,102) in the latter part of April. Complicating the picture going forward for the United States are the early problems with school reopenings in certain states with most school districts working to open in person, remotely or in some combination in the coming weeks. The U.S. also has a very high incidence of affirmative tests in large parts of the country which is problematic particularly as testing (while large in number) continues to have problems in timeliness of results. Despite the need for even larger numbers of tests (that are timely), the number of tests has been declining in the U.S. despite the continued high level of new cases on a daily basis. In addition, the U.S. continues to suffer from mixed messages from government officials on actions needed to control the virus, and from a general fatigue by large parts of the public with the efforts to minimize the spread. This past week’s Sturgis motorcycle rally, where some 250,000 bikers from around the country were expected to attend, is an example of a huge social gathering where limited safety precautions have been seen at least at some events with unknown consequences for the spread of the virus not just in South Dakota (Sturgis is a small town in South Dakota) but across the United States.

Brazil was also slightly lower in the last two weeks (609,219) than the preceding two-week period (633,017) but remains a major source of new cases. South Africa showed a significant decline from 152,411 new cases in the July 20-August 2 period to 80,363 new cases in the last two weeks.

India has taken over the top spot for most new cases in the last two weeks, 838,959, more than 160,000 higher than the prior two weeks (673,108).

There have been upticks in the number of new cases in a number of developed countries reflecting presumably the effects of reopening the economy — Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, Japan. The spike of cases (though still small compared to prior volumes) has led for some tightening up on the economic restrictions in particular cities or more broadly.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Colombia (150,508), Peru (103,620), Argentina (91,135), Mexico (83,521), South Africa (80,363) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date and in the last two weeks. If one looks at deaths/100,000 population, in the lats two weeks, the countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population were the following: Peru (20.91), Colombia (8.90), Bolivia (8.16), Mexico (7.11), Panama (6.99), Brazil (6.48), South Africa (6.02), United States (4.57). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.06 deaths/100,000 population.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through August 16, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 10.09 deaths. The seven countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Belgium (86.73), Peru (80.20), United Kingdom (62.06), Spain (60.97), Italy (58.54), Sweden (which did not impose any restrictions)(56.53), the United States (51.50). With the exception of Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (all the European countries were less than 1 death per 100,000).

Conclusion

The world in the first seven and a half months of 2020 has not managed to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, that has not been true for the Americas (other than Canada), for parts of Asia and for parts of Africa where the pandemic has turned its attention or where the pandemic has not been brought under control.

That said, the last two weeks suggest the global total of new cases in a two week period may have just peaked in August. There are major challenges ahead as reopening of economies gets tested against possible resurgence of cases, schools reopen in many countries, and greater indoor months approach. So there are potentially unwelcome scenarios that could see the huge number of new cases resume an upward trend. But with effort, the world may see the backside of the growth curve.

With the sharpest global economic contraction since World War II, with slumping global trade, with even the wealthier countries struggling to maintain the needed stimulus to reduce the severity of the economic contraction and with potentially hundreds of millions of people around the world losing their jobs, and food insecurity rising with increasing poverty, the world needs to see the pandemic receding and needs breakthroughs in both vaccines and therapeutics, although realistically, 2021 is more likely than the rest of 2020 for the medicaL breakthroughs.

The WTO webpage has a page dedicated to COVID-19, and the WTO Secretariat has generated a host of information notes reviewing the range of challenges that the pandemic is presenting to nations. The most recent looks at the increased costs of trade that flow from the travel and other restrictions. My post from yesterday, looked at the rising food insecurity for dozens of countries facing rising extreme poverty because of the economic contraction being experienced around the world. Stated differently, the trade, economic, health and humanitarian challenges flowing from the COVID-19 pandemic are extraordinary. Stemming the number of new cases is an important step to reduce the pressures on governments, companies and citizens.

Food security and COVID-19 — how World Trade Organization Members could fill a pressing need

In 2020 as the world has been dealing with the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Trade Organization has focused attention on keeping markets open by urging Members to provide notifications of trade restrictive and trade liberalizing measures taken not just on medical goods but also on agricultural products. The G20 countries and various groups of WTO Members have made commitments to impose restrictions only under limited circumstances and only temporarily, consistent with WTO obligations. Some Members have urged countries to agree not to impose export restraints on agricultural goods to limit worsening challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. On agricultural export restrictions, a number of countries have applied some restrictions despite information that global food supplies are sufficient which should make restrictions unnecessary. The attention paid to the issue by the WTO and its Members have limited the number of countries engaged in agricultural export restraints which is a positive development.

With the steps many countries have taken to limit the spread of the COVID-19, there has been enormous economic pain incurred by most countires, with tens of millions of people in countries temporarily unemployed, schools closed, food distribution disrupted with the closure of restaurants which constitute a large part of food shipped from processing plants and farms.

The UN, World Bank and others have projected huge increases in the number of people pushed into extreme poverty because of the effects flowing from the pandemic. Extreme poverty brings with it food security issues as people suffering extreme poverty don’t have the means to procure basic food needs.

The United Nation’s World Food Programme (WFP) has long been involved in helping address food security needs around the world. In the COVID-19 pandemic, the WFP is mobilizing to provide assistance to some 138 million people in 83 countries. With most countries occupied with dealing with the needs of their own populations, countries and private citizens have been slow to respond to the humanitarian challenges facing so many around the world. The WFP has appealed for US$4.9 billion to let them perform their stepped up function during COVID-19 through the end of 2020. As of August 6, they had received only 9 percent of what they need, $US440 million.

The WFP during the pandemic has been involved in facilitating services by many NGOs and international organizations. For example, “Over 16,500 health and humanitarian personnel from 288 organizations have now been transported to destinations throughout Africa, Asia, the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States countries by WFP’s air passenger service since its launch on 1 May. 53 destinations are now being served, with approximately 2,500 passengers using WFP’s service per week.” WFP, COVID-19, Level 3 Emergency, External Situation Report #12 (6 August 2020)(emphasis in original). The latest situation report is embedded below and reviews the wide array of services provided as well a review of some of the countries with acute needs. It also provides a link to contribute to the WFP.

WFP-0000118265

The External Situation Report indicates that there are 27 countries (based on an FAO-WFP hotspot analysis) which “are at risk of significant food security deterioration in the next six months”. (page 2). Countries at risk are Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Haiti, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Burkina Faso, Mali, the Niger, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lebanon, Sudan, South Sudan, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia, Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Afghanistan and Bangladesh (total is 31, though Peru, Ecuador, Colombia appear to be at a lower level of risk based on coloration used on page 2). FAO – WFP early warning analsyis of acute food insecurity hotspots, https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000117706/download/.

Where is the food aid?

For many countries, agricultural production has remained reasonably strong but large volumes of agricultural products have been destroyed based on lack of domestic markets, typically flowing from the collapse of the restaurant trade and the challenges in redirecting product, packaging and labeling into retail channels. See, e.g., New York Times, April 11, 2020, Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html.

At the same time, there have been huge increases in internal-country demand for help from food banks in some countries. See, e.g., for the United States: Feeding America, The first months of the food bank response to COVID, by the numbers, https://www.feedingamerica.org/hunger-blog/first-months-food-bank-response-covid-numbers.

It would seem that coordinated action by major agricultural goods producers in the WTO with the WFP and other groups should be able to provide large quantities of agricultural goods to those in need globally in the remaining months of 2020, goods which might otherwise simply be destroyed.

Similarly, while all countries are financially stretched during the pandemic, helping WFP obtain the needed financial resources to provide a coordinated pledging event should be of interest to WTO Members and many of the multilateral organizations working on COVID responses, as well as the business community and the general public.

While the WTO has grappled with limiting/eliminating export subsidies for agricultural goods, the WTO has always recognized the need to maintain the flow of humanitarian need particularly in agricultural goods. Consider these paragraphs from the 2015 Nairobi Ministerial Conference Decision on Export Competition (WT/MIN(15)45, WT/L/980 (21 Dec. 2015) at 6-7):

“International Food Aid

“22. Members reaffirm their commitment to maintain an adequate level of international food aid, to take account of the interests of food aid recipients and to ensure that the disciplines contained hereafter do not unintentionally impede the delivery of food aid provided to deal with emergency situations. To meet the objective of preventing or minimizing commercial displacement, Members shall ensure that international food aid
is provided in full conformity with the disciplines specified in paragraphs 23 to 32, thereby contributing to the objective of preventing commercial displacement.

“23. Members shall ensure that all international food aid is:

“a. needs-driven;

“b. in fully grant form;

“c. not tied directly or indirectly to commercial exports of agricultural products or other goods and services;

“d. not linked to the market development objectives of donor Members;
and that

“e. agricultural products provided as international food aid shall not be re-exported in any form, except where the agricultural products were not permitted entry into the recipient country, the agricultural products were determined inappropriate or no longer needed for the purpose for which they were received in the recipient country, or re-exportation is necessary for logistical reasons to expedite the provision of food aid for another country in an emergency situation. Any reexportation in accordance with this subparagraph shall be conducted in a manner that does not unduly impact established, functioning commercial markets of agricultural commodities in the countries to which the food aid is re-exported.

“24. The provision of food aid shall take into account local market conditions of the same or substitute products. Members shall refrain from providing in-kind international food aid in situations where this would be reasonably foreseen to cause an adverse effect on local13 or regional production of the same or substitute products. In addition, Members shall ensure that international food aid does not unduly impact established, functioning commercial markets of agricultural commodities.

“25. Where Members provide exclusively cash-based food aid, they are encouraged to continue to do so. Other Members are encouraged to provide cash-based or in-kind international food aid in emergency situations, protracted crises (as defined by the FAO14), or non-emergency development/capacity building food assistance environments where recipient countries or recognized international humanitarian/food entities, such as the United Nations, have requested food assistance.

“26. Members are also encouraged to seek to increasingly procure international food aid from local or regional sources to the extent possible, provided that the availability and prices of basic foodstuffs in these markets are not unduly compromised.

“27. Members shall monetize international food aid only where there is a demonstrable need for monetization for the purpose of transport and delivery of the food assistance, or the monetization of international food aid is used to redress short and/or long term food deficit requirements or insufficient agricultural production situations which give rise to chronic hunger and malnutrition in least-developed and net food-importing developing countries.15

“28. Local or regional market analysis shall be completed before monetization occurs for all monetized international food aid, including consideration of the recipient country’s nutritional needs, local United Nations Agencies’ market data and normal import and consumption levels of the commodity to be monetized, and consistent with Food Assistance Convention reporting. Independent third party commercial or non-profit
entities will be employed to monetize in-kind international food aid to ensure open market competition for the sale of in-kind international food aid.

“29. In employing these independent third party commercial or non-profit entities for the purposes of the preceding paragraph, Members shall ensure that such entities minimize or eliminate disruptions to the local or regional markets, which may include impacts on production, when international food aid is monetized. They shall ensure that the sale of commodities for food assistance purposes is conducted in a transparent, competitive and open process and through a public tender.16

“30. Members commit to allowing maximum flexibility to provide for all types of international food aid in order to maintain needed levels while making efforts to move toward more untied cash-based international food aid in accordance with the Food Assistance Convention.

“31. Members recognize the role of government in decision-making on international food aid in their jurisdictions. Members recognize that the government of a recipient country of international food aid can opt out of the usage of monetized international food aid.

“32. Members agree to review the provisions on international food aid contained in the preceding paragraphs within the regular Committee on Agriculture monitoring of the implementation of the Marrakesh Ministerial Decision of April 1994 on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-developed and net food-importing developing countries.

“13 The term ‘local’ may be understood to mean at the national or subnational level.

“14 FAO defines protracted crises as follows: ‘Protracted crises refer to situations in which a significant portion of a population is facing a heightened risk of death, disease, and breakdown of their livelihoods.’

“15 Belize, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ecuador, Fiji, Guatemala, Guyana, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea and Suriname shall also have access to this provision.

“16 In the instance where it is not feasible to complete a sale through a public tender, a negotiated sale can be used.”

It is believed that the current WTO provisions on food aid should not pose hurdles to countries providing in kind aid where there are needed food products that can be exported during the pandemic. If that is not the case, then the WTO Members should agree to a temporary waiver of relevant restrictions to permit food aid during the pandemic.

There has been much discussion within the G20, WTO, WHO and other groups that collective action on the medical front is critical to see that medical goods, vaccines, are therapeutics are available equitably and at affordable prices. What one hasn’t seen is the same focus on ensuring that the world’ populations have access to food equitably and at affordable prices. During the pandemic, WTO Members have the opportunity to work together to see that food is not wasted and that food aid is supplemented to the extent possible to alleviate the unique challenges to food security presented by the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 — Adverse effects on gender equality and trade’s role in limiting the adverse effects on women

The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development agreed to in 2015 includes 17 broad sustainable development goals (“SDGs”). The fifth SDG is achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020 paints a grim picture of the challenge to meeting the gender equality SDG and the complications flowing from COVID-19. See https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2020/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2020.pdf. Specifically, pages 34 and 35 of the 2020 report review progress towards the fifth SDG. The text (but not the tables and charts) from pages 34-35 is copied below

Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

“International commitments to advance gender equality have brought about improvements in some areas: child marriage and female genital mutilation (FGM) have declined in recent years, and women’s representation in the political arena is higher than ever before. But the promise of a world in which every woman and girl enjoys full gender equality, and where all legal, social and economic barriers to their empowerment have been removed, remains unfulfilled. In fact, that goal is
probably even more distant than before, since women and girls are being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The crisis is creating circumstances that have already contributed to a surge in reports of violence against women and girls, and may increase child marriage and FGM. Moreover, women are likely to take on most additional care work owing to the closure of schools and day-care centres. They are also on the front lines in fighting the coronavirus, since women account for nearly 70 per cent of health and social workers globally.

COVID-19 is intensifying the risk of violence against women and girls

“The coronavirus pandemic lockdowns have confined many women and girls to their homes, sometimes with abusive partners, putting them at greater risk of domestic violence. Even before the pandemic, physical and sexual violence against women were all too common. According to surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017 in 106 countries, 18 per cent of ever-partnered women and girls 15 to 49 years of age experienced such violence by a current or former intimate partner in the 12 months prior to the survey.

“Already, data from several countries show an increase in reporting of domestic violence to helplines, women’s refuges and shelters, and the police. When considering such data, it is important to keep in mind that less than 40 per cent of women who experience violence report this crime or seek help. Being confined at home with an abusive partner and, in some countries, lacking access to mobile phones or the Internet, makes it more difficult for women to safely reach out for help. According to data from 66 countries over the period 2016 to 2018, mobile phone ownership among women was 6.8 percentage points lower than for men, on average. Women are also more likely to have their phones monitored by abusive or controlling partners. In addition, because of service disruptions and closures, women experiencing violence have less access to support and may not seek or be able to receive medical care, if needed.

The global pandemic could set back progress to end child marriage and female genital mutilation

“Marriage before the age of 18 is a human rights violation, mostly affecting girls, and can lead to a lifetime of disadvantage and deprivation. One in five women (20.2 per cent) between the ages of 20 and 24 was married before the age of 18 around 2019, compared with about one in four (23.8 per cent) 10 years earlier. Southern Asia has seen the greatest decline over this period. Today, the risk of child marriage is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where more than one in three women (34.5 per cent) between the ages of 20
and 24 were married before the age of 18. School closures and widening poverty as a result of the pandemic could put more girls at risk.

“FGM is another blatant violation of human rights. At least 200 million girls and women have been subjected to FGM in 31 countries where the practice is concentrated; half of these countries are in Western Africa. Although this harmful practice has been declining, there are still countries where FGM is
almost universal – where at least 9 in 10 girls and women aged 15 to 49 years have been cut. Even in countries where the practice has become
less common, progress would need to accelerate by a factor of 10 to meet the global target of elimination by 2030, owing to population growth. COVID-19 is interrupting programmes to end FGM, which could threaten progress.

Women spend more time than men in unpaid work, a burden that is likely to get heavier during the pandemic

“In an average day, women spend about three times as many hours
in unpaid domestic and care work as men, according to the latest data from 89 countries and areas between 2001 and 2018. Time spent in these activities tends to be even higher for women with young children at home. In roughly 75 per cent of countries with trend data, a small decrease has been observed in the time spent by women on unpaid domestic and care work compared with that spent by men.

“The COVID-19 crisis is radically changing how people, particularly women, spend their time – often with a negative impact on their well-being. A poll conducted in 17 countries shows that both women and men are taking more responsibility for household chores and the care of children and family during the lockdown, but the majority of work continues to fall on
women and girls, reflecting a pre-pandemic pattern.

Women are increasingly assuming positions of power, but the world is still far from parity

“As of 1 January 2020, women’s representation in national parliaments (lower chamber and unicameral parliaments) had reached 24.9 per cent – up from 22.3 per cent in 2015. The share of female representation ranged from more than 30 per cent in Australia and New Zealand, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe to only 6.2 per cent in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand). Data from 133 countries and areas show that women now have better access to decision-making positions at the local level, holding 36.3 per cent of elected seats in local deliberative bodies.
Only 13 per cent and 15 per cent of countries, respectively, have reached gender balance (40 per cent or more) in legislative bodies in national parliaments and in local government. This progress is largely attributed to legislated gender quotas.

“In 2019, women represented 39 per cent of the world’s workers and half of the world’s working-age population, but only 28 per cent of managerial positions (up from 25 per cent in 2000). Women face higher barriers than men in accessing employment. And when they do get a job, they are often
excluded from decision-making positions. In 2019, women accounted for 41 per cent of managerial positions in South-Eastern Asia and 40 per cent in Northern America, but only 8 per cent in Northern Africa.

“In the context of COVID-19, it is critical that women are fairly represented in leadership positions related to the pandemic. This will help to avoid deepening existing inequalities. It will also ensure that gender dimensions and investments in gender equality are included in response and recovery legislation, economic packages and budgets during and after the pandemic.

Women’s lack of decision-making power extends even to their own reproductive health

“Slightly more than half of all women (55 per cent) make their own decisions when it comes to sexual and reproductive health and rights, based on 2007–2018 data from 57 countries on women aged 15 to 49 who are either married or in union. The analysis also found that women have the most autonomy in deciding on the use of contraception (91 per cent). However, only three in four women are making their own decisions regarding health care or on whether or not to have sex.

“Progress on other fronts is encouraging: in 2019, countries had established 73 per cent of the laws and regulations needed to guarantee full and equal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights, according to data from 75 countries. The findings were particularly heartening when it comes to HIV. On average, countries had set in place 87 per cent of laws and regulations needed for HIV counselling and testing services; 91 per cent of those needed for HIV treatment and care services; and 96 per cent for HIV confidentiality. Meanwhile, countries had instituted 79 per cent of relevant laws and regulations that stipulate full, free and informed consent of individuals before they receive contraceptive services, including sterilization.”

The challenges for the world to achieve gender equality are daunting and in many ways not trade-connected. However, inequality in education, pay, access to capital and other issues have trade repercussions. Expanded trade has helped reduced some aspects of inequality. Government policies to address education and other elements can permit greater equality of opportunity and improve national competitiveness.

Trade and COVID-19

While COVID-19 is first and foremost a healthcare issue, the pandemic is having enormous economic consequences for countries around the world. A recent information note from the World Trade Organization, which builds on a World Bank and WTO report on trade and gender, reviews how women are being disproportionately harmed economically by COVID-19. The disproportionate adverse effects are making it harder to achieve gender equality and to empower all women and girls by 2030. The information note is dated August 3, 2020. See The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Women in Vulnerable Sectors and Economies, Information Note, 3 August 2020, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/info_note_covid_05aug20_e.pdf. The World Bank and WTO report on trade and gender was released in July 2020, “Women and Trade: the role of trade in promoting gender equality”, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/women_trade_pub2807_e.pdf.

While most business data are not collected on a gender specific basis, some information is available that reveals where there are higher levels of female employment. Some industries and service sectors where women have large numbers of workers have suffered serious contractions in work since the beginning of 2020 in response to efforts by governments to control the spread of COVID-19. One example presented in the information note is the textile/apparel sector where trade has been very severely affected by lockdowns and resulting reduced spending on clothing in many markets. Global value chains in the sector affect workers in many countries whether least-developed, developing or developed. Bangladesh is highlighted in the information note. In Bangladesh, ready-made garments comprised 84% of 2019 exports for the country. Eighty percent of the four million workers in the sector in Bangladesh are women. Economic reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic around the world resulted in a 45.8% reduction in business for Bangladesh’s ready-made garment companies in the first quarter of 2020 and an 81% contraction in April. Layoffs have been more than one million workers, mostly women. Depending on governmental safety nets and other economic opportunities in a country, a sharp contraction in a major manufacturing sector can set back efforts at gender equality and increase poverty as the Bangladesh example typifies.

Similarly, women have high employment levels in the travel and tourism sector around the world. Travel and tourism is another sector severely harmed by the response of countries to the COVID-19 pandemic. The UN World Tourism Organization has projected employment losses of as many as 100 million jobs in 2020 as international travel is severely restricted, governments impose restrictions on domestic travel and use of restaurants, bars, hotels, entertainment venues and more by the public and visitors is greatly reduced.

The information note provides a useful summary of the key points on how COVID-19 is impacting women. The following is copied from page 1 of the information note.

“KEY POINTS:

“• Women are at risk of suffering more than men from the trade disruption generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the reasons for this is that a larger share of women works in sectors and types of firms that have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic.

“• Women make up a larger share of the workforce in the manufacturing sectors, such as textiles, apparel, footwear and telecommunication products, that experienced some of the largest falls in export growth during the first months of the pandemic. For example, female employees
represent 80 per cent of the workforce in ready-made garment production in Bangladesh, in which industry orders declined by 45.8 per cent over the first quarter of 2020, and by 81 per cent in April alone.

“• A larger share of women than men works in services, such as tourism and business travel services, that have been directly affected by regional and international travel restrictions.

“• A large share of firms owned or managed by women are micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), and lower levels of financial resources and limited access to public funds are placing the survival of such businesses at greater risk.

“• The economic impact of the pandemic is expected to be particularly significant for women in least-developed and developing economies because fewer women than men are employed in these economies in occupations which can be undertaken remotely, and a larger share of women is employed in sectors highly exposed to international travel restrictions.

“• The effects of the pandemic are aggravating existing vulnerabilities. Many channels through which COVID-19 is having a greater impact on women are those at the heart of gender inequalities, such as lower wages for women, fewer educational opportunities, limited access to finance, greater reliance on informal employment and social constraints. Limited access to digital technologies and lower rates of information technology (IT) skills further reduce women’s opportunities for teleworking and e-commerce, and thus for adapting to the current crisis.

“• Many governments have adopted a broad range of support measures to help individuals and businesses. Some of these measures, mainly social protection initiatives adopted by some central or local governments, are specifically targeted at women.

“• Maintaining open trade during the economic recovery period is key to building faster and more inclusive growth.

“• The joint World Bank and World Trade Organization report on trade and gender, “Women and Trade: the role of trade in promoting gender equality”, published in July 2020, highlights ways in which trade can continue to benefit women in the post-COVID-19 recovery period.”

Keeping trade open will increase trade flows, increase jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, and services and will increase income of people around the world. With the sharp contraction in trade in the first half of 2020, a rapid rebound in trade is critical to support efforts at achieving gender equality.

For countries who don’t have the pandemic under control, the school year presents additional challenges

As the UN 2020 report points out, women bear the brunt of child care. In countries with households where both parents work or where there is a single female adult household, child care and school are critical elements of the infrastructure needed for the parent or both parents being able to work outside of the home.

In the United States, where we are still struggling to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control, parents now face the additional challenge of how to respond to the coming school year. While the Administration is urging all states to open all schools for in-school attendance immediately, the reality is likely to be significantly different based on the science and current rate of spread of COVID-19 in many states. Some school districts have indicated that school openings will be delayed several months. Others will handle school for at least the fall semester remotely. Some are looking at doing part of the school semester remote for each student and part where each student attends the school in person. Finally some schools intend to open requiring students to attend in person. Many school teachers are striking to keep schools closed where it is viewed as unsafe to reopen.

The experience of some school districts that have already opened is mixed in terms of whether a large number of COVID-19 cases arise. Problems with the rise in number of new cases following school reopening have also been reported by at least some countries who have done a much better job of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic than the United States. Israel, for example, has had a sharp increase in infections since reopening schools despite earlier good progress in controlling the spread of the coronavirus.

What U.S. federal stimulus programs will look like going forward for the rest of the year is not presently known. Parents are facing many challenges including whether to send children to school during the pandemic and if not how child care will be handled and who will provide in-home education/support.

News reports indicate that many mothers are making the decision to take on the child care and home education responsibilities, which will mean reduced outside-the-home economic activity for the mothers.

The most important action for the U.S. is to double down on getting the pandemic under control as quickly as possible, something we don’t have a national game plan to actually accomplish at the moment. In addition, government policies and assistance programs that get adopted/extended and private sector support of employees to permit greater telecommuting and flexible hours may hold the key to reducing the negative effects of women during the pandemic.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive health challenges around the world and seen countries suffer the greatest economic contraction since World War II. The economic fallout from the efforts of governments to control the pandemic is harming the ability of the world to make progress on many of the UN’s sustainable development goals. SDG #5, achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls is one of the SDGs being negatively affected.

Both during the pandemic and afterwords, it is critical that countries, businesses, multilateral organizations and others focus on pursuing actions that will minimize the loss of forward movement on achieving the SDG dealing with gender equality. In the trade arena, reducing uncertainty by keeping markets open, identifying steps that can be taken to expand liberalization particularly in goods or services employing large numbers of women, seeing that access to financing and trade finance has a focus on MSMEs, expanding infrastructure and education for broader internet access for populations with limited access at present are some of the needs for minimizing the global economic damage from the pandemic and helping promote greater gender equality.

World Health Organization — July 31 meeting of Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of coronavirus disease and July 30 note on public health considerations while resuming international travel

COVID-19 is first and foremost an international health challenge. The World Health Organization (“WHO”) spearheads international efforts at developing and communicating information on the coronavirus, coordinating efforts at addressing the health response and working with other organizations to help countries around the world obtain needed medical supplies and to facilitate best practices in addressing the pandemic. While the United States has given notice of its withdrawal from the WHO (which takes effect six months after the notice), the WHO is a critical organization for a coordinated response to health pandemics such as COVID-19. For example, the WHO put out on February 3, 2020, a publication entitled, “2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan” and followed that up last month with a progress report covering 1 February to 30 June 2020. See https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/covid-strategy-update-14april2020.pdf?sfvrsn=29da3ba0_19; https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-covid-19-preparedness-and-response-progress-report—1-february-to-30-june-2020. These types of publications provide important information to nations around the world as well as documenting progress being made in controlling the spread of the pandemic.

This post looks at several recent activities of the WHO.

July 31, 2020 4th Meeting of the Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

On July 31, a meeting of health experts from around the world was convened by the WHO’s Director-General under the Inernational Health Regulations (IHR)(2005). It was the fourth meeting of the Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A statement was released from the meeting on August 1. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/01-08-2020-statement-on-the-fourth-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19).

Much of the work of the Emergency Committee is confidential but the statement released includes a summary of issues reviewed and advice provided to the WHO and to States Parties. As reviewed in yesterday’s post, the number of new COVID-19 cases continues to increase around the world. While most of the growth is in developing and least-developed contries, the United States continues to experience huge numbers of new cases, increasing hospitalizations and increasing deaths. Many other developed countries are seeing some resurgence of cases as their economies reopen. See August 2, 2020,  Review of the COVID-19 pandemic – continued growth in cases and deaths, resurgence in some countries where COVID-19 had receded, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/02/review-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-continued-overall-growth-in-cases-and-deaths-resurgence-in-some-countries-where-covid-19-had-receded/.

While many developing and least-developed countries have had relatively small numbers of cases, that is not true for all such countries. Moreover, the sharp contraction in GDP and trade volumes in developed countries and developing countries with large numbers of cases has meant that the economic damage for many of the poorest countries is mounting and is debilitating. The World Bank and IMF are both actively engaged in providing financial assistance to many developing and developed countries. Still the World Bank’s June 2020 Global Economic Prospects estimates that COVID-19 will result in 71-100 million people being pushed into extreme poverty. See https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/projected-poverty-impacts-of-COVID-19; World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2020, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748.

Thus, with the continued growth in global cases, the increased concentration in developing and least-developed countries and the huge economic effects occurring as countries try to reduce the spread of COVID-19, it is not surprising that the Emergency Committee “unanimously agreed that the pandemic still constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.” The WHO’s Director-General included a declaration to that effect in the statement released on August 1.

Below is the advice the Committee provided to the WHO Secretariat and the temporary recommendations to State Parties (all material to the next header is from the statement):

Advice to the WHO Secretariat

  1. Continue to distill and rapidly communicate lessons learned and best practices from the COVID-19 pandemic and national
    intra-action reviews.
  2. Continue to coordinate and mobilize global and regional multi- lateral organizations, partners and networks for robust political
    commitment and resourcing of COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response, including for development of vaccines and
    therapeutics.
  3. Provide nuanced, pragmatic guidance on criteria for appropriate COVID-19 response activities to reduce the risk of response fatigue in the context of socio-economic pressures.
  4. Continue to support State Parties and partners in conducting active and community-based COVID-19 surveillance, through technical and operational resources, such as guidance, tools, and trainings on case definitions and identification, contact tracing, and death certifications; encourage State Parties to continue reporting relevant data to WHO through platforms such as the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.
  5. Accelerate research into remaining SARS-CoV-2 critical unknowns, such as the animal source and potential animal reservoirs, and improve understanding of the epidemiology and severity of COVID-19 (including its long-term health effects; viral dynamics such as modes of transmission, shedding, potential mutations; immunity and correlates of protection; co-infection; as well as risk factors and vulnerabilities) and the effectiveness of public health measures.
  6. Continue to work with partners to counter mis/disinformation and infodemics by developing and disseminating clear, tailored
    messaging on the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects; encourage and support individuals and communities to follow recommended public health and social measures.
  7. Support diagnostics, safe and effective therapeutics and vaccines’ rapid and transparent development (including in developing countries) and equitable access through the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator; support all countries to implement the necessary clinical trials and to prepare for the rollout of therapeutics and vaccines.
  8. Work with partners to revise WHO’s travel health guidance to reinforce evidence-informed measures consistent with the provisions of the IHR (2005) to avoid unnecessary interference with international travel; proactively and regularly share information on travel measures to support State Parties’ decision-making for resuming international travel.
  9. Support State Parties, particularly vulnerable countries, in strengthening their essential health services and accompanying
    supply chains as well as preparing for and responding to concurrent outbreaks, such as seasonal influenza.

Temporary recommendations to State Parties

  1. Share best practices, including from intra-action reviews, with WHO; apply lessons learned from countries that are successfully
    re-opening their societies (including businesses, schools, and other services) and mitigating resurgence of COVID-19.
  2. Support multilateral regional and global organizations and encourage global solidarity in COVID-19 response.
  3. Enhance and sustain political commitment and leadership for national strategies and localized response activities driven by science, data, and experience; engage all sectors in addressing the impacts of the pandemic.
  4. Continue to enhance capacity for public health surveillance, testing, and contact tracing.
  5. Share timely information and data with WHO on COVID-19 epidemiology and severity, response measures, and on concurrent disease outbreaks through platforms such as the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.
  6. Strengthen community engagement, empower individuals, and build trust by addressing mis/disinformation and providing clear guidance, rationales, and resources for public health and social measures to be accepted and implemented.
  7. Engage in the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, participate in relevant trials, and prepare for safe and effective therapeutic and vaccine introduction.
  8. Implement, regularly update, and share information with WHO on appropriate and proportionate travel measures and advice, based on risk assessments; implement necessary capacities, including at points of entry, to mitigate the potential risks of international transmission of COVID-19 and to facilitate international contact tracing.
  9. Maintain essential health services with sufficient funding, supplies, and human resources; prepare health systems to cope with seasonal influenza, other concurrent disease outbreaks, and natural disasters.

Travel and Tourism

In prior posts, I have reviewed the devastating economic consequences of the pandemic on the travel and tourism sector of global economies as countries have restricted entry of people from many countries to reduce the likelihood of travelers having and spreading COVID-19. See April 30, 2020, The collapse of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/04/30/the-collapse-of-tourism-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/; May 3, 2020, Update on the collapse of travel and tourism in response to COVID-19, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/05/03/update-on-the-collapse-of-travel-and-tourism-in-response-to-covid-19/.

The airline industries around the world are in serious trouble, as are restaurants, bars, hotels, sports and entertainment venues and more. The reduced level of air traffic has greatly reduced air cargo availability which has increased costs for many products. At the same time, countries have struggled to find ways to expedite movement of medical goods and permit the travel of essential personnel (e.g., health professionals, transportation employees, etc.). There are not uniform standards being applied by countries on access of international travelers which means confusion and less movement than would happen under agreed rules.

On July 30, the WTO released a document, entitled “Public health considerations while resuming international travel”. The link follows and the document is embedded below. https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/public-health-considerations-while-resuming-international-travel.

Public-health-considerations-while-resuming-international-travel

The paper advises each country to conduct a risk-benefit analysis and decide on the national priorities of permitting the return/expansion of international travel.

“WHO recommends that priority should be given to essential travel for emergencies, humanitarian actions (including emergency medical flights and medical evacuation), travel of essential personnel (including emergency responders and providers of public health technical support, critical personnel in transport sector such as seafarers[5] and diplomatic officers), and repatriation. Cargo transport should also be prioritized for essential medical, food and energy supplies. Sick travellers and persons at risk including elderly travellers and people with chronic diseases or underlying health conditions, should delay or avoid travelling internationally to and from areas with community transmission.

“There is no ‘zero risk’ when considering the potential importation or exportation of cases in the context of international travel. Therefore, thorough and continuous risk assessment and management will help identify, reduce and mitigate those risks, while balancing the socio-economic consequences of travel measures (or temporary restrictions) against potential adverse public health consequences.

“The decision process should include an analysis of the situation, taking into account the local context in countries of departure and destination. The following factors should be considered: local epidemiology and transmission patterns, the national public health and social measures for controlling the outbreaks in both departure and in destination countries; public health and health service capacity at national and subnational levels to manage suspect and confirmed cases among travellers, including at points of entry (ports, airports, ground crossings) to mitigate and manage the risk of importation or exportation of the disease; and the evolving knowledge about COVID-19 transmission and its clinical features.”

All countries need to find ways to handle the travel of essential personnel and those involved with emergencies. However, as the note makes clear, while expanding international travel is important for countries, there are a host of considerations that will make movement of non-essential travel dependent on a range of considerations, including the extent to which the pandemic is under control in either the country from which passengers are travelling or in the country of entry. The EU’s list of countries from which non-essential travelers will be permitted into the EU is an example of the approach suggested by the WHO focusing on the extent of the spread in the country from which travelers would leave to arrive in the EU.

What the WHO note makes clear is that the fastest route to reopening of international travel safely is for greater cooperation among countries to both control the spread of COVID-19, for greater transparency in how governments are addressing emerging situations, and for greater attention to the level of health care preparedness to handle surges including testing, tracing and any needed quarantine capabilities.

Considering how quickly situations can change in a given country, an additional challenge for countries reopening international travel will be the flexibility and responsiveness of the country to changing health conditions in trading partners (and in its own country) over time.

Conclusion

The challenges of individual nations in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic should be made more manageable through cooperation with other nations and the work of multilateral organizations including the World Health Organization. Many countries have worked cooperatively to share information, including on research and best practices. The WHO provides a great deal of support to countries and serves as a gathering point for information to improve transparency in the health care responses around the world.

WTO Members need to address trade restrictions that have arisen as countries attempt to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reopening trade and keeping it open are critical to the ability of countries to minimize the economic fallout that has occurred in the first half of 2020 and will continue at least in part in the third quarter and likely beyond. Yet, the ability to keep markets open and increase international travel is complicated by the myriad differences between nations on factors like the level of COVID-19 infection, the health care infrastructure and ability of that infrastructure to handle surges where they occur. The WHO plays a critical role in helping nations understand the tools available to address the pandemic and the considerations that need to be taken into account when reopening markets, including international travel.

Review of the COVID-19 pandemic — continued overall growth in cases and deaths, resurgence in some countries where COVID-19 had receded

This past week saw the release of information on GDP contraction in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2020 (9.5% (annualized at 32.9%)) and in the European Union (11.9%). See U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, News Release BEA 20-37, Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update, https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/gdp2q20_adv_0.pdf; Eurostat newsrelease 121/2020 – 31 July 2020, Preliminary flash estimate for the second quarter of 2020, GD down by 12.1% in the euro area and by 11.9% in the EU, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11156775/2-31072020-BP-EN.pdf/cbe7522c-ebfa-ef08-be60-b1c9d1bd385b#:~:text=The%20next%20estimates%20for%20the,released%20on%2014%20August%202020.&text=Compared%20with%20the%20same%20quarter,respectively%20in%20the%20previous%20quarter. Japan has similarly suffered substantial contraction in its GDP through the second quarter. See https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-GDP-to-shrink-22-in-Q2-in-biggest-postwar-drop-forecast.

These sharp contractions in U.S. and EU GDP reflect the effects of the actions by governments in the U.S. and in the EU to shut down parts of their economies in an effort to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sharp contractions would have been far worse but for government efforts to provide emergency funding to support companies, workers and local governments. While the COVID-19 pandemic has been far less severe in terms of cases and deaths in Japan and in other countries in Asia, contraction in GDP reflects both declining consumer spending and global effects of trade contraction that are occurring.

China, where COVID-19 infections were first discovered, saw a decline in GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020 with a rebound in the second quarter to a 3.2% increase. See CNBC, China says its economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter this year, rebounding from coronavirus, July 15, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/china-economy-beijing-reports-q2-2020-gdp.html.

The sharp contractions in GDP from much of the developed world is consistent with projections by the IMF from June 2020. A summary table from the World Economic Outlook Update is copied below.

The hope was that after a sharp contraction in the second quarter, the world would experience a v-shaped recovery once the pandemic was brought under control in much of the world.

As we start August 2020, expectations are turning to a longer and shallower rebound in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 which will negatively affect billions of people. The world has not yet crested in terms of new COVID-19 cases and countries that had gotten the virus seemingly under control are seeing various levels of resurgence. The United States which never got the virus under control has seen a second surge that has reached levels at least twice as high as earlier levels of new cases and has seen a resurgence in hospitalizations and deaths.

There are a few bright spots. Some countries have managed to drastically reduce the spread of the virus and have been reopening in phases with limited recurrence. Moreover, a number of pharmaceutical companies have entered phase three trials of vaccines, and governments have fronted billions of dollars to build capacity for vaccines should they prove safe and effective. While major countries like the U.S. and the EU block have secured access to potentially hundreds of millions of doses from various companies should vaccines in trial receive approval for distribution, at least a number of these pharmaceutical companies (or consortia) have arrangements for massive production around the world including billions of doses for developing and least developed countries which should enable a more equitable and affordable distribution than may have been true in the past.

COVID-19, the number of new cases in the last fourteen days

Looking at the daily reports put out by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the world saw an additional 3,568,162 cases in the fourteen days ending August 2nd. This was an increase of some 550,000 from the previous fourteen days ending July 19 where new cases were 3,018,993. The July 19 two week figures were again up close to 550,000 from the period ending July 5 when there were 2,469,859 cases. The period ending June 21 has 1,932,024 new cases; the period ending June 7 had seen an additional 1,567,983 new cases. Thus, in less than two months the global number of new cases in a fourteen-day time period increased by 127.56 percent. The COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 2 August 2020 is embedded below.

COVID-19-situation-update-worldwide-as-of-2-August-2020

Fourteen of the forty-two countries or customs territories that I have been tracking who account for more than 90% of total cases and total deaths from the pandemic continue to not have peaked in terms of two week number of new cases. See July 21, 2020, COVID-19 – the United States continues to spin out of control with increasing shortages of medical goods; sharp increases in developing countries in the Americas and parts of Asia, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/07/21/covid-19-the-united-states-continues-to-spin-out-of-control-with-increasing-shortages-of-medical-goods-sharp-increases-in-developing-countries-in-the-americas-and-parts-of-asia/. Japan, which had peaked a number of months ago, has a resurgence of cases, so much so that the last two weeks (11,439 new cases) exceed any other two week period for the country. Other countries which have not peaked include the United States (908,980 new cases), India (673,105 new cases) Brazil (633,017 new cases), Colombia (115,481 new cases), Mexico (95,280 new cases), Argentina (72,001 new cases) and these additional countries — Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Honduras, Indonesia, Iraq, and the Philippines). South Africa peaked in the prior two week period but still had an additional 152,411 new cases (93.56% of its peak).

Many developed countries have seen sharp increases in the last two weeks, albeit from much lower levels than in the spring. These include Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia and Japan.

Many developing and least-developed countries in Central and South America, Africa and parts of Asia are seeing growing numbers of cases. While some of these countries have seen a peak in the number of new cases, for others that is not true. India and Brazil are continuing to struggle to contain the spread as are the Latin and Asian countries reviewed above.

In the last two weeks, the United States had more new cases per 100,000 population than all of the other 41 countries being monitored other than Brazil and Panama. The U.S. number of new cases per 100,000 population was 5.88 times the number for all countries (including the U.S) and 4-50 times as high as major EU countries. And on deaths in the last fourteen days, the U.S. has more deaths per 100,000 population than all of the other 41 countries other than Brazil, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and Panama. The U.S. death rate in the last fourteen days is 3.95 times the rate/100,000 population for the entire world and 25-87 times the rate for major EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain).

WTO Members have the opportunity to adopt rules to minimize trade disruptions and expedite economic recovery

Many Members of the WTO have submitted proposals for action by the Membership to minimize the harm to global economies and trade flows from addressing trade restrictions, trade liberalization possibilities and other matters within the WTO’s wheelhouse.

In a previous post, I reviewed the July 25 APEC trade ministers joint statement and annex which in my view could provide the platform for WTO Members coming together to adopt a group of principles that have been endorsed not only by the APEC countries but also by G-20 members (in various G-20 releases). See July 28, 2020, APEC trade ministers’ virtual meeting on July 25 – Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods during COVID-19, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/07/28/apec-trade-ministers-virtual-meeting-on-july-25-declaration-on-facilitating-the-movement-of-essential-goods-during-covid-19/.

The WTO, being a member-driven organization, requires the WTO Members to come together for the common good if progress is to be made. While recent actions on seemingly non-substantive issues, like selecting an acting Director-General (largely an administrative function pending selection of a new Director-General), lay bare the lack of trust and widely divergent views among WTO Members, adopting basic principles for getting through the pandemic should be a win-win for all Members.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic is continuing to wreak havoc across the globe with new cases and new deaths continuing to mount. The health consequences are severe and are increasingly shifting to developing and least-developed countries. However, some developed countries, like the U.S., have not gotten the virus under control. Moreover, a number of countries who have had success controlling the spread of COVID-19 are seeing a resurgence as reopening of economies continues. This has led some countries to slow or even reverse some of the reopening steps.

As the sharp economic contractions in major developed economies attest, there are huge economic costs to dealing with the pandemic. The economic rebound is unlikely to be as strong or as quick as many have hoped. While much of what is needed is focus by each country and its citizenry to follow the science and get the pandemic under control, there is also an important role for multilateral organizations to play in keeping markets open, providing financing for those in need and more. The WTO has a potentially important role on the trade front. It is unclear that WTO Members will embrace the opportunities presented, but if Members would it would reduce the depth of the trade contraction and help speed economic recovery.

APEC Trade Ministers’ Virtual Meeting on July 25 — Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods during COVID-19

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has twenty-one members whose territories borders the Pacific Ocean. The twenty-one members include Australia; Brunei Darussalem; Canada; Chile; China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan; Malaysia; Mexico; New Zealand; Papua New Guinea; Peru; the Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russia; Singapore; Chinese Taipei; Thailand; United States; and Viet Nam. According to a 2019 USTR note on U.S.-APEC Trade Facts, APEC countries account for 38% of the world’s population, 60% of the world’s GDP and 47% of world trade. See https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/other-initiatives/asia-pacific-economic-cooperation-apec/us-apec-trade-facts#:~:text=APEC%20has%2021%20members%2C%20referred,percent%20of%20the%20world’s%20trade.

In May 2019, APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade (“MRTs”) issued a statement on COVID-19 recognizing both the centrality for all members in halting the spread of the pandemic and the need for members to also focus on remedying the economic challenges flowing from the pandemic. Like the G20 and other groups, APEC MRTs recognized the importance of keeping markets open, of limiting emergency restrictive measures and ensuring such measures are “targeted, proportionate, transparent, temporary and should not create unnecessary barriers to trade, and are consistent with WTO rules.” APEC MRTs encouraged cooperation and the sharing of information and more. See Statement on COVID-19 by APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade, 5 May 2020, WT/GC/213. The May 2019 statement is embedded below.

213

At the July 25, 2020 virtual meeting of MRTs, the ministers issued a joint statement and included as Annex A the Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods. See MRTs joint statement, https://www.apec.org/Meeting-Papers/Sectoral-Ministerial-Meetings/Trade/2020_MRT; Annex A,https://www.apec.org/Meeting-Papers/Sectoral-Ministerial-Meetings/Trade/2020_MRT/Annex-A. Both are embedded below.

Ministers-Responsible-for-Trade-Virtual-Meeting-Joint-Statement-2020

Declaration-on-Facilitating-the-Movement-of-Essential-Goods-by-the-APEC-Ministers-Responsible-for-Trade-MRT

The joint statement reiterates the May 2019 key points and incorporates the Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods “which is a clear indication of the region’s continued support for WTO work.” The MRTs “recognize the need for discussions to reduce non-tariff barriers which restrict trade in essential goods.” There are other supportive statements about the importance of WTO work. “We encourage continued constructive engagement on WTO issues, including in the lead-up to the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference.” At the same time, the MRTs are looking to the development of a “post-2020 Vision” which they are hopeful leaders can launch at the end of 2020. Presumably, such a vision will include trade- related components which may include reforms at the WTO or simply be regional cooperation on certain important topics (supply chain issues on adequacy of supplies, e-commerce, movement of people as region recovers from COVID-19, etc.).

The Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods has ten specific actions that are declared.

The first two deal with export restrictions and prohibitions. The first is that each APEC member will ensure that any emergency trade measures introduced to address COVID-19 are consistent with WTO rules. The second commits APEC members to notify all such measures in accordance with WTO obligations.

The third declared action addresses non-tariff barriers. Specifically APEC members “are encouraged to work together to identify and resolve any unnecessary barriers to trade in essential goods.”

The next five declared actions pertain to trade facilitation — to expedite and facilitate the flow and transit of essential goods; to enhance coordination, efficiency and transparency of border clearance of essential goods; expediting the release of essential goods upon arrival; facilitating the entry, transit and departure of air cargo dealing with essential medical goods; abiding by the International Health Regulations of 2005.

The ninth declared action deals with tariffs and while not committing APEC members to liberalize tariffs for essential medical supplies, notes that some economies have taken such liberalizing actions and notes that the business community supports such action.

The last statement deals with reviewing progress on the APEC initiatives annually until COVID-19 is no longer a public health emergency.

Conclusion

Many countries and customs territories around the world have expressed objectives which are generally not significantly different than those put forward by APEC members.

With the large share of global trade accounted for by APEC members and with similar-type commitments by the G20 (which includes major members of the EU and has the EU participating), one would think it should be possible to obtain WTO commitments along similar lines to the APEC Declaration. The Declaration would need to have added some of the developing country and least developed country needs that have been already presented to the WTO so that the concerns of all are addressed.

While the WTO is doing an excellent job of providing information about the pandemic and trade measures taken by Members (at least those notified), the WTO Members have yet to get behind a set of principles that all Members can sign off on. Perhaps the APEC MRT joint statement and Declaration on Facilitating the Movement of Essential Goods provides a good starting point for the full WTO membership. While some WTO Members have not wanted to address COVID-19 issues during the pandemic, obviously collective action during the pandemic would be most effective. The post-pandemic needs also should be addressed but can await individual and group developments of views.

Pascal Lamy’s recent comments on the challenges facing the WTO

Pascal Lamy is a former Director-General of the WTO (2005-2013) and former European Commission Trade Commissioner (1999-2004). He is President emeritus of the Jacques Delors Institute. As one would expect, he is a frequent speaker on trade matters. Two events in the last several months presented some thoughts on the challenges for the WTO moving forward.

Mr. Lamy was interviewed by the Lowy Institute in Australia in early July on their COVIDcast addressing the future of globalisation. See The Interpreter, July 3, 2020, COVIDcast: The future of globalisation, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/covidcast-future-globalisation. Similarly, on June 17, 2020, he and Robert Zoellick (former President of the World Bank and former U.S. Trade Representative) participated in a Peterson Institute for International Economics Trade Winds program, What future for the global trading system?, https://www.piie.com/events/what-future-global-trading-system.

Below are some of my notes on points made by Mr. Lamy I thought were of interest along with my commentary.

globalization vs. deglobalization

On the future of gobalization, Mr. Lamy is of the view that the next few years will be a period of more obstacles for trade and investment. These obstacles will change the speed of globalization but won’t lead to broad scale deglobalization. There will be some onshoring to address fragility of supply chains. However, the clamor for onshoring will be “more bark than bite”.

In the United States both the Administration and parts of the Congress have called for onshoring production of medical equipment. There has been some utilization of the Defense Production Act by the Trump Administration to get producers to use facilities to produce needed equipment. Many U.S. industries and unions have urged the government to take action to permanently reshore production of various medical equipment. See Joint Statement on Policy Objectives for Reshoring and Safeguarding Domestic PPE Manufacturing (embedded below).

joint-statement-of-reshoring-of-PPE-production

However, the U.S. has not entered into long-term contracts to support significant reshoring efforts, possibly supporting Mr. Lamy’s prediction of “more bark than bite”.

precautionism

Efforts by countries to recover from the economic damage caused by COVID-19 will be complicated by what Mr. Lamy called “precautionism” (governments protecting people from risk) and which he distinguished from protectionism (protecting producers from international competition). In Mr. Lamy’s view, protectionism can be addressed by eliminating restrictions or other obstacles. Precautionism involves risk profiles which will differ among Members and possibly may differ among issues being considered and hence will be much more difficult to address to achieve a level playing field. Mr. Lamy in the Trade Winds program used the example of the tourism sector which has been devastated by governments’ efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 and noted that there are a number of different initiatives by countries to get some reopening of tourism (e.g., nonessential air travel) between particular countries, but that there isn’t a common approach which in his view reflects differing risk profiles of countries.

I would note that precautionism is not limited to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The WTO’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement and the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement both recognize the right of Members to take measures to protect their populations at such level as is deemed appropriate by the Member although encouraging use of international standards.

To the extent the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic is a more cautious risk profile for major trading nations, recovery will likely be slower and more fragmented.

Borrowings during the pandemic to lessen the economic collapse

Mr. Lamy made several points on the massive amounts of stimulus funds being provided by certain governments to limit the economic challenges being faced from efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19.

His first point is that the size of the government programs will necessarily distort trade and create a playing field that is not level. Rescue plans for companies or industries, subsidies provided, increased state ownership are all elements of the distortions that he sees occurring. He believes countries will have to come to grips with the emergency needs and see that markets return to their proper role with reduced government involvement.

The second point is that only a few countries are positioned to provide this type of financial assistance because of the inability for most countries to borrow huge amounts of money for such stimulus activities. Hence the north-south divide is growing according to Mr. Lamy. While this point is certainly true, multilateral organizations like the IMF and World Bank and regional development banks are working to provide debt forgiveness and other financial assistance to some developing and to least developed countries to provide some greater flexibilities.

WTO reform — U.S.-China tensions

Mr. Lamy views the WTO as weaker today than it was ten years ago. He attributes the main source of the weakened situation of the WTO to the growing divergence between the United States and China. In his view, the tension between the two has prevented convergence on a range of issues.

Because the world has changed so much over the years, the WTO rulebook must be updated. China’s state capitalism economic system is creating significant problems for the world trading system. China’s trading partners are concerned about the high level of state ownership (30% for China) and the government support to the state-owned sectors. These facts lead to conflict with partners both in terms of market access in China and in terms of Chinese competition in other markets. Mr. Lamy notes that the WTO’s rules on state aid are weak. He doesn’t believe one can coexist with China in the WTO if rules on state aid are not toughened (what he describes as achieving “competitive neutrality”). Even with new rules, the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China will remain.

Mr. Lamy agrees with the United States that the current WTO rules do not constrain China’s state capitalism practices which distort competition. He believes that China was making good progress on moving towards a market economy until the 2008-2009 financial crisis. China had lowered state ownership to 15% of the economy. With the financial crisis, China poured huge sums into the economy, including through state-owned enterprises. With the change in political leadership, the country shifted away from a convergence model and has continued to bolster its state capitalism model, now 30% of the economy. For the foreseeable future, the WTO will not be able to achieve convergence by China to a market-economy model, but will have to work on whether coexistence can be made to handle at least many of the distortions.

The Untied States has been pushing the WTO to come to grips with the fact that the WTO set of rules was created for market economies, and to recognize that such rules don’t work for large state capitalism economies. One of the WTO’s Deputy Directors-General, Alan Wolff, in a speech earlier this year, in reviewing principles that undergird the WTO identified convergence, not coexistence, as one of the core principles. See DDG Wolff: “There can be no permanent retreat from what has been created,” 10 June 2020, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/ddgaw_11jun20_e.htm (“Of necessity, the WTO is about convergence, not coexistence”)

In his comments during the Peterson Institute’s Trade Winds webinar, Mr. Lamy indicated that coexistence is possible if there are strong state-aid rules and reviewed the ability of Germany and France to work together in the EC despite France having had relatively high state ownership (around 15%) in the early years. The ability to work with a country with significant state-control was due to stringent state aide rules. The U.S., Japan and EU have been working to pull together improved disciplines on industrial subsidies, action that China has already indicated it will not accept. Mr. Lamy is of the view that China can be brought to the table by parties seeking “competitive neutrality” and by indicating to China that China will not gain additional market access without agreeing to new rules on state aid.

In a post last week, I reviewed an opinion piece by Peter Carl, a former EC Director General for Trade. His take on the same situation was that the EU, US and others should pursue improved disciplines on state aid but when such efforts are rejected by China, the EU and others should leave the WTO and start a new organization without China where convergence would be possible. See July 25, 2020, A new WTO without China?  The July 20, 2020 Les Echos opinion piece by Mogens Peter Carl, a former EC Director General for Trade and then Environment, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/07/25/a-new-wto-without-china-the-july-20-2020-les-echos-opinion-piece-by-mogens-peter-carl-a-former-ec-director-general-for-trade-and-then-environment/.

Mr. Lamy also reviewed how a functioning WTO is very important for developing and least developed countries. Trade and investment is a big lever for such countries in their development efforts. Thus, if the WTO continues to weaken, it is these countries that will be most hurt. Similarly, these same countries are likely most adversely affected by the trade and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

WTO agenda

During the Peterson Institute’s Trade Winds program in June, Mr. Lamy indicated that proponents of open trade were in for a difficult time. He listed five issues of concern. Three were dealt with above (precautionism, government infusions to address COVID-19 pandemic, deglobalization/onshoring). He also reviewed the weaponization of trade, citing both the Trump Administration’s actions and the dispute between Japan and the Republic of Korea, and new forms of protectionism citing investment controls and new instruments.

Mr. Lamy believes that the WTO agenda needs to be looked at in two stages. The first or short term involves finding a new Director-General, and needs to include a cooling down period. My understanding of the cooling down period is to have governments who have poured trillions of dollars into their economies back out of such increased state involvement and permit reestablishment of a level playing field. This period will be a few years and will permit some increase in trust through small steps. He believes there will be a coalition for open trade and that the EU will be the leader depending on the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election in the U.S.

Longer term, Mr. Lamy believes that the WTO must go back to dealing with the big problems:

coexistence with China as long as China has 30% of its economy state-controlled; will require improved rules on state aid;

dealing with the trade and environment nexus; issue keeps rising on the global agenda; EU planned global carbon tax will be important issue;

around the challenge of precautionism, the world will need a new effort to level the playing field possibly similar to prudential rules in the finance system.

EU role in the WTO during the US-China tensions

The EU is serving as a stabilizing force in the WTO. Indeed, the more U.S.-China tensions increase, the more the EU will step in to provide stability. Mr. Lamy states that many WTO members want the EU to be a shield to protect them from having to pick sides with either the U.S. or China. This is a big role for the EU. If EU comes out of the COVID-19 pandemic stronger, it will bolster the role that the EU can play in the WTO to maintain stability.

Mr. Lamy cited the Appellate Body crisis as one where the EU by creating the multi-party interim arbitration agreement took the lead to maintain stability in the organization and got many countries to follow.

Conclusion

Mr. Lamy paints a picture of a challenging time for the world trading system in the coming years. He agrees that the WTO rules do not adequately address distortions that flow from China’s state capitalism economic system. His proposed solution is to coexist but work on obtaining stronger rules on state aid. While the U.S., Japan and the EU agree such improved rules are needed, there is a certain irony in his recognizing the need for stronger rules on state aid, as it was the EU, among others, who pushed for weaker subsidies disciplines during the Uruguay Round.

Mr. Lamy also paints a bleak picture of distortions created by countries’ efforts to stem off economic collapse as countries impose shutdowns to try to control the COVID-19 spread. His argument is from 30,000 feet and is conclusory – the introduction of such huge amounts of money necessarily distorts competition. My own view is that while the question of whether there are distortions is an important one, large parts of the funding don’t increase manufacturing or production but rather form a safety net under employers, employees and state and local governments dealing with an extraordinary situation that doesn’t reflect market forces. Of more use would be agreeing on identification of outcomes that are viewed as distortive versus those outcomes which simply offset the economic fallout from the pandemic. Many industries will end up much smaller after the pandemic than before and any rescue funds provided will reflect an effort to address the extraordinary event of governments mandating closure of markets. Presumably such funding should be agreed to be nonobjectionable. Whereas if an industry in a country expands with government assistance to take advantage of the closure of competitors because of restrictions flowing from efforts to address the pandemic, presumably such subsidies would be problematic.

The longer term issues Mr. Lamy raises will certainly take center stage at some point, but his list does not include any of the large number of pending issues before the WTO where progress will hopefully be made in the coming next year or so – fisheries subsidies, electronic commerce, etc.

What is clear is that the next Director-General will face a very challenging landscape with fundamental differences among many Members that will make forward movement by the WTO and its Members a challenging undertaking.

Trade’s role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals

In 2015 all UN members agreed to pursue 17 broad sustainable development goals (“SDGs”) by 2030. As stated on the UNDP webpage talking about SDGs,

“The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), also known as the Global Goals, were adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 as a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity by 2030.

“The 17 SDGs are integrated—that is, they recognize that action in one area will affect outcomes in others, and that development must balance social, economic and environmental sustainability.” https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html.

The seventeen goals include:

  1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere;
  2. end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture;
  3. ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages;
  4. ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong opportunities for all;
  5. achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls;
  6. ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all;
  7. ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all;
  8. promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all;
  9. build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation;
  10. reduce inequality within and among countries;
  11. make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable;
  12. ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns;
  13. take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts;
  14. conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development;
  15. protect, restore, and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degredation and halt biodiversity loss;
  16. promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels;
  17. strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development.

Trade has been and continues to be an important tool to achieve many of the SDGs. For example, expanded world trade has helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over recent decades and so can play an important role in achieving SDG #1.

Similarly, trade can benefit efforts to reduce hunger and improve food security (SDG#2), though restrictions on trade can complicate efforts to address hunger and food security.

As is obvious in the current COVID-19 pandemic with the large number of export restraints imposed by countries, keeping trade of medical goods flowing can be critical to ensuring healthy lives for all at all ages (SDG#3).

Thus, trade is an important element as countries, the UN and other multilateral organizations and the private sector work together to achieve the ambitious set of sustainable development goals.

Each year the UN holds a High Level Political Forum (“HLPF”) which reviews progress to date and what needs to be done to get all countries to the sustainable development goals by 2030. This year’s HLPF was held from July 7-16 under a theme reflecting the great distance that yet remains to achieve the SDGs. The theme was “Accelerated action and transformative pathways: Realizing the decade of action and delivery for sustainable development.” The theme reflects the fact that the world is a significant distance from achieving many of the goals and in fact will like suffer movement in the wrong direction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, there is a need for accelerated action if the goals are to be achieved by 2030.

A chart prepared by the UN showing progress on each of the seventeen broad goals (but only for certain specific goals within the broader category) for the world and for various geographical areas is embedded below. The data reflect progress only through 2019 or 2018.

26727SDG_Chart_2020

Many UN and other multilateral organizations provide input to the HLPF each year. The World Trade Organization is one such entity. As noted above, trade plays an important role in achieving many of the SDGs though there is only one part of one of the SDGs where the WTO has a specific mandate — 14.6, eliminating overfishing and subsidies that contribute to the same.

On July 13, the WTO issued a press release on the WTO’s 2020 report to the HLPF. The press release reviews the sustainable development goals on which trade activities are having a direct effect and what actions are occurring within the WTO on them. The link to the press release follows and the text is reproduced below. The actual 2020 WTO report to the UN HLPF is embedded after the press release. See Keeping trade open amid COVID-19 crisis central to achieving SDGs and economic recovery, 13 July 2020, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/sdgs_13jul20_e.htm.

“In a report to the United Nations High-level Political Forum (HLPF) taking place from 7 to 16 July, the WTO Secretariat highlights that trade, fiscal and monetary policies are key to supporting global sustainable development and achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Amid the COVID-19 crisis, keeping trade open and fostering a favourable business environment will be critical to spur the renewed investment needed to meet the SDGs, the report says.

“The theme of the 2020 HLPF — to be held under the auspices of the United Nations Economic and Social Council — will be “Accelerated action and transformative pathways: Realizing the decade of action and delivery for sustainable development”. Participants will review progress on the SDGs in light of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They will also reflect on how the international community can respond to the crisis in a way that will accelerate progress towards meeting the SDGs.

The WTO reports annually to the HLPF on WTO efforts to achieve trade-specific targets in the SDGs. The HLPF is the United Nations’ main forum for reviewing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, providing the opportunity for all UN members and specialised agencies to meet annually to evaluate progress on achieving the SDGs.

“The WTO report to this year’s HLPF highlights that the multilateral trading system has contributed significantly to unprecedented economic development over the last few decades. Greater certainty over trade policies has created predictability, creating the conditions for long-term business planning and investment.

“However, a rise in trade-restrictive measures since 2019 — especially between major economies — and the suspension of activities of the WTO’s Appellate Body have created new challenges for the multilateral trading system. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis is having a major impact on global supply and demand, leading to disruptions in global supply chains for both goods and services.

“At this time of crisis, the multilateral trading system becomes all the more important, providing a forum for a coordinated response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the report says.

“The report summarises the latest progress in the WTO’s multilateral trade negotiations, highlighting that talks on reducing harmful fisheries subsidies are playing an important role in advancing developing countries’ sustainable development objectives and meeting a key target in SDG 14.

“Other WTO work contributing to meeting the SDGs includes discussions within the Committee on Trade and Environment on issues such as the circular economy, domestic initiatives on waste and chemicals management and recycling; and through the Aid for Trade initiative, which supports the achievement of SDG 8a.

“The report also highlights the importance of improving transparency in WTO members’ trade policies, particularly those taken in response to the COVID-19 crisis.

“Another issue covered by the report is the role of gender-responsive trade policies as a means of increasing women’s participation in global trade and contributing to economic growth. These efforts were catalysed by the signing of the Buenos Aires Declaration on Trade and Women’s Economic Empowerment in December 2017 and the implementation of the WTO’s Trade and Gender Action Plan for 2017-19.

“The WTO’s work with other international agencies on increasing access to trade finance is also outlined by the report. Trade finance can help facilitate international trade, helping small businesses in particular play a more active role in the global economy.

“Mainstreaming trade into national development plans is cited as an important means of helping governments meet the SDGs. This includes integrating trade into sector strategies, defining a clear national trade policy and ensuring effective institutional coordination. The contribution of the multi-agency Enhanced Integrated Framework in this area is underscored by the report.

“Finally, the report underlines the need for governments to implement measures that address the challenges faced by least-developed countries in international trade to ensure a more equitable distribution of the gains from trade and support the achievement of SDG 17.11, which calls for doubling LDCs’ share in global trade by 2020. The report also points to the importance of open trade policy and responsive fiscal policy to bring about a sustained and socially inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.”

26126WTO_HLPF_Input_2020

The 2020 WTO report is interesting on several fronts. First, it articulates in general the benefits of trade and the value of stability in the trading system while recognizing that trade is suffering from increased conflicts and from the economic effects of COVID-19 and WTO Member responses to the pandemic. The benefits of countries working together to permit global economic recovery are reviewed, essentially a call to the WTO Members to step up and in fact maximize cooperation to maximize the upside economic potential post pandemic. Trade has been and can be important to achieving SDGs.

Second, the report identifies a wide array of SDGs that the WTO has activities ongoing to support achieving. For the public, it is quite useful to see the range of activities that are ongoing at the WTO relevant to the SDGs even during a period of seeming stagnation and impasse at the WTO. While many important issues, such as progress on achieving a fisheries subsidies agreement, depend on WTO Members’ ability to reach agreement in ongoing negotiations, there are issues where ongoing activities like Aid-for-Trade or joint activities with other multilateral organizations are making progress on achieving SDGs, even if the ongoing work is technical in nature in some cases.

While the WTO report is just one of many reports and other input provided by various groups and organizations, trade, investment and financing will all play important roles in the coming decade if the sustainable development goals are to be achieved. Embedded below is the draft ministerial declaration from this year’s HLPF event which was held virtually. The draft is dated July 17 and was subject to review by delegates until July 22 (silent approval process). It is unclear if the draft was approved or not as of posting this piece, but the draft lays out the direction needed whether or not the exact language used in the draft ends up in the final declaration. Trade issues are identified in paragraph 17 which states,

“17. We remain determined to end hunger and achieve food security and improved nutrition for all as a matter of priority and to end all forms of malnutrition, while ensuring sustainable and resilient food systems, promoting sustainable agriculture, including smallholder and family farming, that increases productivity and production, and preventing food loss and waste. Recognizing that COVID-19 has exacerbated food insecurity, and also recognizing that international trade is an engine for development, we will work to ensure the flow of vital medical supplies, food and agricultural products and inputs, and other goods and services across borders, and work to resolve disruptions to the global supply chains to support the health and well-being of all people. We reiterate our goal to realize a free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment and to keep our markets open. We look forward to the 2021 Food Systems Summit to be convened by the Secretary-General.”

The full draft declaration is embedded below.

26780MD_2020_HLPF_HLS

Conclusion

There is much that needs to happen for the WTO to be fully functional and responsive to the changing global trade environment. WTO Members are the masters of what the WTO does or doesn’t do. But the WTO and its Members are also part of the collective effort to achieve the historic sustainable development goals set out by the UN in 2015 which are to be achieved, if possible, by 2030.

The 2020 WTO report to the HLPF is a useful reminder of the many ways in which trade can promote the UN’s SDGs and how at least some progress can be made even where there is gridlock generally within the WTO. This year’s HLPF meeting underlines the urgency of action by all countries, multilateral organizations and others to ensure a better world for all. Time will tell whether the governments of the world can in fact pull together to achieve the important global goals in the coming decade.