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COVID-19 cases increase in last two weeks, setting new global record for new cases in fourteen day period.

In my last two posts of August 30 and August 16, I suggested that it appeared that the global spread of COVID-19 may have peaked or plateauted. See August 30, 2020, The global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases passes 25 million with more than 843,000 deaths – increased race to lock-up vaccine supplies, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/30/the-global-number-of-confirmed-covid-19-cases-passes-25-million-with-more-than-843000-deaths-increased-race-to-lock-up-vaccine-supplies/; August 16, 2020, Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic?  Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/16/is-the-world-at-the-peak-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-last-two-weeks-suggest-a-peaking-of-the-growth-of-global-infections-may-be-at-hand/. However, data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for the August 31-September 13 period shows a return to growth in new cases. The latest two weeks show total new cases of 3,780,469. This compares to the total new cases for the August 17-30 time period of 3,558,360, 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Total cases since the end of December 2019 are now just shy of 29 million.

The United States which has more confirmed cases (6,486,108) than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19 (193,701), had a third two-week decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period and was further reduced to 524,526 new cases in the August 31-September 13 period. The most recent period is still 28.21% higher than what had been the prior peak during April 13-26 of 409,102 new cases. Even with the significant reduction in new cases in the August 31-September 13 period, the United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases is continuing to rapidly increase, and were 1,211,623 in the last two weeks (the first country to have more than one million cases in a two week period). Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are also falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16, 529,057 new cases during August 17-30 and 469,534 new cases during August 31-September 13. India, the United States and Brazil accounted for an extraordinary 58.34% of the new global cases during the last two weeks and account for 54.01% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019. The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 22.52% of total confirmed cases since December 2019. With the continued declining numbers in the last two weeks while the overall total of new cases grew, the U.S. was still 13.87% of new cases during August 17-30 or roughly three times the U.S. share of global population.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues although there has been some significant resurgence of new cases in a number of developed countries during the summer vacation period with a renewal of at least some international travel. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Argentina (143,681), Colombia (109,050), Peru (83,397), Mexico (72,261), Iraq (59,332), Indonesia (45,562), the Philippines (44,732), South Africa (25,663) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Developed country resurgence in new cases

With the reopening of some international travel and with the end of the summer holiday season, there has been a noticeable surge of new cases in a number of developed countries, particularly in Western Europe. Spain showed the largest increase of a developed country that had gotten the COVID-19 spread under control until recently. For August 17-30, Spain saw an additional 96,473 new cases. The August 31-September 13 period saw a further large increase for Spain to 127,040 cases. France nearly doubled the large number it had experienced in the August 17-30 period (57,009 new cases) in the latest two weeks, with new cases reaching 101,381. Germany was up slightly from the prior two weeks (17,538 new cases) at 17,657 new cases. Italy added 19,444; Romania added 16,553; the United Kingdom added 32,422; the Netherlands increased by 11,374; Czechia increased by 11,307. Other countries in Europe (Russia and Ukraine) as well as Israel also saw significant additional new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (193,701) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (10,922) behind only India (15,088), though the U.S. number of new deaths declined from the prior two weeks while India’s number of new deaths continued to climb. The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population for the last two weeks were the following: Ecuador (24.91), Bolivia (20.49), Colombia (7.29), Argentina (6.48), Peru (6.11), Mexico (5.32), Brazil (5.09), Panama (4.05), Chile (3.77), Puerto Rico (3.65), Costa Rica (3.41) and the United States (3.32). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.02 deaths/100,000 population in the last two weeks.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through September 13, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 12.13 deaths. The ten countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Peru (94.10), Belgium (86.59), Bolivia (63.38), Spain (63.38), Chile (62.76), Ecuador (62.53), United Kingdom (62.45), Brazil (62.17), Italy (58.98), the United States (58.86). With the exception of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (the European countries were typically less than 1 death per 100,000).

Conclusion

The world in the first eight months of 2020 has struggled to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been some resurgence in many of these countries as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased and as schools reopen in many countries. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in parts of Africa. Since most new cases are now in developing countries, it is unclear how many of these countries will be able to handle a significant number of cases, whether their healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed and whether they will have the medical goods needed to handle the cases safely.

The August 31-September 13 period has seen the global number of new cases growing after six weeks of what appeared to be a peak or plateau. That is not good news for the world as in many parts of the world schools are reopening and fall and winter will bring greater time indoors likely resulting in continued growth in new cases.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. Still the results of the phase three trials are not yet in and as a temporary delay by AstraZeneca with its phase three trial shows, the timing of outcomes remains unknown though anticipated by the end of 2020 and first part of 2021. Still the rollout of vaccines if approved will take time to get large parts of the global population vaccinated. This will likely place a large cloud over much if not all of 2021 even in an optimistic scenario.

Whether the world will rise to the challenges in terms of improving access to medical goods, to maintaining an open trading system, to aiding not only national populations but ensuring assistance to the most vulnerable, and when vaccines are approved to ensuring an equitable and affordable access by all are open questions. If the world is not able to collaborate on these issues, the 2020s will be a lost decade and will threaten global security.

The global number of confirmed COVID-19 cases passes 25 million with more than 843,000 deaths — increased race to lock up vaccine supplies

In my post of August 16, I suggested that it appeared that the global spread of COVID-19 may have peaked in the August 3-16 period. See August 16, 2020, Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic?  Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2020/08/16/is-the-world-at-the-peak-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-last-two-weeks-suggest-a-peaking-of-the-growth-of-global-infections-may-be-at-hand/. Data compiled by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control show total new cases for the August 17-30 time period to be 3,558,360 compared to 3,624,548 for August 3-16 and 3,568,162 for the July 20-August 2 period. Thus, global new cases seem to have peaked or to have reached a plateau.

The United States which has more confirmed cases than any other nation and more confirmed deaths from COVID-19, had a second two-week decline in new cases. The U.S. recorded the extraordinary number of 908,980 new cases during the fourteen day period July 20-August 2. That number declined to 740,721 during August 3-16 and further declined to 600,417 new cases in the August 17-30 period. The most recent period is still 46.76% higher than what had been the prior peak during April 13-26 of 409,102 new cases. Even with the significant reduction in new cases in the August 17-30 period, the United States had the second largest number of new cases, following only India whose number of new cases is continuing to rise and were 953,051 in the last two weeks. Brazil maintains its hold on third place though its new cases are also falling since July 20-August 2 (633,017 new cases) to 609,219 new cases during August 3-16 and to 529,057 new cases during August 17-30. India, the United States and Brazil accounted for an extraordinary 58.5% of the new global cases during the last two weeks and account for 53.39% of all cases confirmed since late December 2019. The United States with 4.3% of global population has accounted for 23.82% of total confirmed cases since December 2019. With the declining numbers in the last two weeks, the U.S. was still 16.87% of new cases during August 17-30 or roughly four times the U.S. share of global population.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues although there has been some significant resurgence of new cases in a number of developed countries during the summer vacation period with a renewal of at least some international travel. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Colombia (143,225), Peru (113,632), Argentina (109,585), Mexico (73,998), Iraq (54,863), the Philippines (55,213), South Africa (38,898) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Spain showed the largest increase of a developed country that had gotten the COVID-19 spread under control until recently. For August 17-30, Spain saw an additional 96,473 new cases. France added 57,009 new cases; Germany saw 17,538 new cases. Other countries in Europe as well as Japan and Korea also saw significant additional new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date (182,779) and had the second largest number of deaths in the last two weeks (13,298) behind only India (13,518). The countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population were the following: Colombia (8.45), Bolivia (8.12), Peru (7.79), Brazil (6.27), Argentina (6.12), Mexico (5.70), Panama (5.58),Chile (4.15), United States (4.04). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.01 deaths/100,000 population.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through August 30, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 11.10 deaths. The nine countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Belgium (86.34), Peru (87.99), United Kingdom (62.27), Spain (61.81), Chile (59.00), Italy (58.77), Brazil (57.08), Sweden (which did not impose any restrictions)(56.90), the United States (55.54). With the exception of Brazil, Chile, Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (all the European countries were less than 1 death per 100,000).

Race for vaccines

There have been many press articles looking at efforts by the United States, by the EU and by others to lock up large quantities of vaccines from companies whose vaccines are in third phase trials for early availability to their populations. See, e.g., European Commission, 14 August 2020, Coronavirus: Commission reaches first agreement on a potential vaccine, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1438. The Russian Federation has released a vaccine that did not go through a third phase trial and has received interest from some developing countries. After international criticism, the Russian Federation is now pursuing Phase 3 trials. AP, Putin touts Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine as effective and safe, August 27, 2020, https://apnews.com/f505b2fe730b56b558b8f76bf1932af0.

China has been promising some trading partners preferential access to its vaccines. See, e.g., Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2020, China Seeks to Use Access to COVID-19 Vaccines for Diplomacy, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-to-use-access-to-covid-19-vaccines-for-diplomacy-11597690215

For the Philippines, their President has been shopping with the U.S., Russia and China for early access. See, e.g., Nikkei Asia, August 11, 2020, Duterte takes Russia’s offer of COVID vaccine after asking China, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Duterte-takes-Russia-s-offer-of-COVID-vaccine-after-asking-China.

Beyond the national or regional efforts to secure priority for vaccines when developed, joint efforts continue as part of the WHO effort to ensure that vaccines and other medical goods relevant to addressing COVID-19 are available equitably to all people and at affordable prices. See, e.g., European Union, Coronavirus Global Response, https://global-response.europa.eu/index_en.

So while it may not be surprising to see countries looking first and foremost about the health of their own citizens, the World Health Organization has warned that no one is safe until all are safe from the COVID-19. The next six months to a year will be a test of whether the efforts of many to provide funding and other resources to ensure greater equitable access to vaccines at affordable prices can coexist with national efforts to prioritize their own citizens.

Conclusion

The world in the first eight months of 2020 is struggling to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, there has been some resurgence in many of these countries as their economies reopen, travel restrictions are eased and as schools reopen in many countries. But the number of new cases continues to rage in much of the Americas (other than Canada), in parts of Asia (in particular India) and in parts of Africa. Since most new cases are now in developing countries, it is unclear how many of these countries will be able to handle a significant number of cases, whether their healthcare infrastructure will be overwhelmed and whether they will have the medical goods needed to handle the cases safely.

August has seen the global number of new cases peak and possibly start to decline. That is some good news although the number of new cases on a daily basis continues to strain the global supply system.

The progress on developing safe and effective vaccines is encouraging and has been sped by the willingness of major economies like the U.S. and the EU to fund manufacturing ahead of actual approval of the promising vaccines. While this puts a lot of money at risk should one or more of the vaccines in trials not prove safe or effective, it saves a great deal of time in getting product to market if approved. In a global economy in which least developed countries, small and vulnerable economies and other developing countries are experiencing significant economic challenges because of travel restrictions and trade contractions flowing from efforts to address the pandemic, achieving equitable and affordabale access to vaccines when available is a global imperative. Time will tell if the imperative is achieved or not.

Is the world at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic? Last two weeks suggest a peaking of the growth of global infections may be at hand

Much of the world recorded sharp contractions in GDP during the second quarter as countries restricted travel, issued mandatory stay at home orders and took other steps to try to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries have been easing restrictions in the last several months that were imposed typically in March. The hoped for revival of the global economy is being slowed by the continued high incidence of new COVID-19 cases, the resurgence of cases (albeit so far at low levels) following reopening actions in many of the countries who had gotten control of the virus. In a number of countries, schools are reopening presenting additional challenges for governments in trying to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. News reports continue to be promising that one or more vaccines may be approved by the end of 2020 or early 2021, and the Russian Federation has gone into production of a vaccine which reportedly has not undergone a phase three trial.

One question of potential importance in mid-August is has the world gotten to the peak of the number of new cases during the last two weeks or will the number of new cases resume an upward trajectory in the coming weeks?

The world has seen a rapid growth of new cases during the March – July period. As recently as the two week period of May 11-May 24, the total new cases globally in the two week period was 1.28 million. The next two weeks (May 25-June 7) showed new cases of 1.57 million. June 8-June 21 recorded 1.93 million new cases; June 22 – July 5 added 2.46 million. July 6-July 19 added 3.02 million new cases. July 20-August 2 added 3.57 million new cases. The data for the last two weeks, August 3-16 added 3.62 million new cases. So the rate of growth is slowing. While the number of new cases in the most recent two weeks was nearly three times as many as recorded in mid-May, in the last two weeks, the growth was only 1.4%.

The United States for the first time since early June has seen the number of new cases fall from the prior two weeks, although the new cases in August 3-16 were still the second largest (740,721) after only India (838,959) and remain two and a half times as high as the May 25-June 7 period (297, 391) and were 81.5% higher than the original peak figure (409,102) in the latter part of April. Complicating the picture going forward for the United States are the early problems with school reopenings in certain states with most school districts working to open in person, remotely or in some combination in the coming weeks. The U.S. also has a very high incidence of affirmative tests in large parts of the country which is problematic particularly as testing (while large in number) continues to have problems in timeliness of results. Despite the need for even larger numbers of tests (that are timely), the number of tests has been declining in the U.S. despite the continued high level of new cases on a daily basis. In addition, the U.S. continues to suffer from mixed messages from government officials on actions needed to control the virus, and from a general fatigue by large parts of the public with the efforts to minimize the spread. This past week’s Sturgis motorcycle rally, where some 250,000 bikers from around the country were expected to attend, is an example of a huge social gathering where limited safety precautions have been seen at least at some events with unknown consequences for the spread of the virus not just in South Dakota (Sturgis is a small town in South Dakota) but across the United States.

Brazil was also slightly lower in the last two weeks (609,219) than the preceding two-week period (633,017) but remains a major source of new cases. South Africa showed a significant decline from 152,411 new cases in the July 20-August 2 period to 80,363 new cases in the last two weeks.

India has taken over the top spot for most new cases in the last two weeks, 838,959, more than 160,000 higher than the prior two weeks (673,108).

There have been upticks in the number of new cases in a number of developed countries reflecting presumably the effects of reopening the economy — Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, Japan. The spike of cases (though still small compared to prior volumes) has led for some tightening up on the economic restrictions in particular cities or more broadly.

Continued growth of cases in the developing world

With the number of new cases in the United States declining, the trend to new cases being focused on the developing world continues. While India and Brazil had by far the largest number of new cases from developing countries, they were followed by Colombia (150,508), Peru (103,620), Argentina (91,135), Mexico (83,521), South Africa (80,363) and then dozens of other countries with smaller numbers of new cases.

Deaths/100,000 population

The United States has the largest number of deaths of any country to date and in the last two weeks. If one looks at deaths/100,000 population, in the lats two weeks, the countries with the highest number of deaths per 100,000 population were the following: Peru (20.91), Colombia (8.90), Bolivia (8.16), Mexico (7.11), Panama (6.99), Brazil (6.48), South Africa (6.02), United States (4.57). All other countries (including all other developed countries) had lower rates of death per 100,000 population. For all countries, the death rate over the last two weeks was 1.06 deaths/100,000 population.

If looking at the entire period since the end of December 2019 through August 16, the average number of deaths for all countries per 100,000 of population has been 10.09 deaths. The seven countries (of 71 which account for 98% of total deaths) with the highest death rates/100,000 for the full period are: Belgium (86.73), Peru (80.20), United Kingdom (62.06), Spain (60.97), Italy (58.54), Sweden (which did not impose any restrictions)(56.53), the United States (51.50). With the exception of Peru and the United States, each of the other top countries overall has shown a drastic reduction since their peaks in April and as reflected in the experience in the last two weeks (all the European countries were less than 1 death per 100,000).

Conclusion

The world in the first seven and a half months of 2020 has not managed to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control. While many countries in Europe and some in Asia and the major countries in Oceania have greatly reduced the number of new cases over time, that has not been true for the Americas (other than Canada), for parts of Asia and for parts of Africa where the pandemic has turned its attention or where the pandemic has not been brought under control.

That said, the last two weeks suggest the global total of new cases in a two week period may have just peaked in August. There are major challenges ahead as reopening of economies gets tested against possible resurgence of cases, schools reopen in many countries, and greater indoor months approach. So there are potentially unwelcome scenarios that could see the huge number of new cases resume an upward trend. But with effort, the world may see the backside of the growth curve.

With the sharpest global economic contraction since World War II, with slumping global trade, with even the wealthier countries struggling to maintain the needed stimulus to reduce the severity of the economic contraction and with potentially hundreds of millions of people around the world losing their jobs, and food insecurity rising with increasing poverty, the world needs to see the pandemic receding and needs breakthroughs in both vaccines and therapeutics, although realistically, 2021 is more likely than the rest of 2020 for the medicaL breakthroughs.

The WTO webpage has a page dedicated to COVID-19, and the WTO Secretariat has generated a host of information notes reviewing the range of challenges that the pandemic is presenting to nations. The most recent looks at the increased costs of trade that flow from the travel and other restrictions. My post from yesterday, looked at the rising food insecurity for dozens of countries facing rising extreme poverty because of the economic contraction being experienced around the world. Stated differently, the trade, economic, health and humanitarian challenges flowing from the COVID-19 pandemic are extraordinary. Stemming the number of new cases is an important step to reduce the pressures on governments, companies and citizens.