travel and tourism

COVID-19 — Adverse effects on gender equality and trade’s role in limiting the adverse effects on women

The UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development agreed to in 2015 includes 17 broad sustainable development goals (“SDGs”). The fifth SDG is achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020 paints a grim picture of the challenge to meeting the gender equality SDG and the complications flowing from COVID-19. See https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2020/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2020.pdf. Specifically, pages 34 and 35 of the 2020 report review progress towards the fifth SDG. The text (but not the tables and charts) from pages 34-35 is copied below

Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

“International commitments to advance gender equality have brought about improvements in some areas: child marriage and female genital mutilation (FGM) have declined in recent years, and women’s representation in the political arena is higher than ever before. But the promise of a world in which every woman and girl enjoys full gender equality, and where all legal, social and economic barriers to their empowerment have been removed, remains unfulfilled. In fact, that goal is
probably even more distant than before, since women and girls are being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The crisis is creating circumstances that have already contributed to a surge in reports of violence against women and girls, and may increase child marriage and FGM. Moreover, women are likely to take on most additional care work owing to the closure of schools and day-care centres. They are also on the front lines in fighting the coronavirus, since women account for nearly 70 per cent of health and social workers globally.

COVID-19 is intensifying the risk of violence against women and girls

“The coronavirus pandemic lockdowns have confined many women and girls to their homes, sometimes with abusive partners, putting them at greater risk of domestic violence. Even before the pandemic, physical and sexual violence against women were all too common. According to surveys conducted between 2005 and 2017 in 106 countries, 18 per cent of ever-partnered women and girls 15 to 49 years of age experienced such violence by a current or former intimate partner in the 12 months prior to the survey.

“Already, data from several countries show an increase in reporting of domestic violence to helplines, women’s refuges and shelters, and the police. When considering such data, it is important to keep in mind that less than 40 per cent of women who experience violence report this crime or seek help. Being confined at home with an abusive partner and, in some countries, lacking access to mobile phones or the Internet, makes it more difficult for women to safely reach out for help. According to data from 66 countries over the period 2016 to 2018, mobile phone ownership among women was 6.8 percentage points lower than for men, on average. Women are also more likely to have their phones monitored by abusive or controlling partners. In addition, because of service disruptions and closures, women experiencing violence have less access to support and may not seek or be able to receive medical care, if needed.

The global pandemic could set back progress to end child marriage and female genital mutilation

“Marriage before the age of 18 is a human rights violation, mostly affecting girls, and can lead to a lifetime of disadvantage and deprivation. One in five women (20.2 per cent) between the ages of 20 and 24 was married before the age of 18 around 2019, compared with about one in four (23.8 per cent) 10 years earlier. Southern Asia has seen the greatest decline over this period. Today, the risk of child marriage is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where more than one in three women (34.5 per cent) between the ages of 20
and 24 were married before the age of 18. School closures and widening poverty as a result of the pandemic could put more girls at risk.

“FGM is another blatant violation of human rights. At least 200 million girls and women have been subjected to FGM in 31 countries where the practice is concentrated; half of these countries are in Western Africa. Although this harmful practice has been declining, there are still countries where FGM is
almost universal – where at least 9 in 10 girls and women aged 15 to 49 years have been cut. Even in countries where the practice has become
less common, progress would need to accelerate by a factor of 10 to meet the global target of elimination by 2030, owing to population growth. COVID-19 is interrupting programmes to end FGM, which could threaten progress.

Women spend more time than men in unpaid work, a burden that is likely to get heavier during the pandemic

“In an average day, women spend about three times as many hours
in unpaid domestic and care work as men, according to the latest data from 89 countries and areas between 2001 and 2018. Time spent in these activities tends to be even higher for women with young children at home. In roughly 75 per cent of countries with trend data, a small decrease has been observed in the time spent by women on unpaid domestic and care work compared with that spent by men.

“The COVID-19 crisis is radically changing how people, particularly women, spend their time – often with a negative impact on their well-being. A poll conducted in 17 countries shows that both women and men are taking more responsibility for household chores and the care of children and family during the lockdown, but the majority of work continues to fall on
women and girls, reflecting a pre-pandemic pattern.

Women are increasingly assuming positions of power, but the world is still far from parity

“As of 1 January 2020, women’s representation in national parliaments (lower chamber and unicameral parliaments) had reached 24.9 per cent – up from 22.3 per cent in 2015. The share of female representation ranged from more than 30 per cent in Australia and New Zealand, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe to only 6.2 per cent in Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand). Data from 133 countries and areas show that women now have better access to decision-making positions at the local level, holding 36.3 per cent of elected seats in local deliberative bodies.
Only 13 per cent and 15 per cent of countries, respectively, have reached gender balance (40 per cent or more) in legislative bodies in national parliaments and in local government. This progress is largely attributed to legislated gender quotas.

“In 2019, women represented 39 per cent of the world’s workers and half of the world’s working-age population, but only 28 per cent of managerial positions (up from 25 per cent in 2000). Women face higher barriers than men in accessing employment. And when they do get a job, they are often
excluded from decision-making positions. In 2019, women accounted for 41 per cent of managerial positions in South-Eastern Asia and 40 per cent in Northern America, but only 8 per cent in Northern Africa.

“In the context of COVID-19, it is critical that women are fairly represented in leadership positions related to the pandemic. This will help to avoid deepening existing inequalities. It will also ensure that gender dimensions and investments in gender equality are included in response and recovery legislation, economic packages and budgets during and after the pandemic.

Women’s lack of decision-making power extends even to their own reproductive health

“Slightly more than half of all women (55 per cent) make their own decisions when it comes to sexual and reproductive health and rights, based on 2007–2018 data from 57 countries on women aged 15 to 49 who are either married or in union. The analysis also found that women have the most autonomy in deciding on the use of contraception (91 per cent). However, only three in four women are making their own decisions regarding health care or on whether or not to have sex.

“Progress on other fronts is encouraging: in 2019, countries had established 73 per cent of the laws and regulations needed to guarantee full and equal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights, according to data from 75 countries. The findings were particularly heartening when it comes to HIV. On average, countries had set in place 87 per cent of laws and regulations needed for HIV counselling and testing services; 91 per cent of those needed for HIV treatment and care services; and 96 per cent for HIV confidentiality. Meanwhile, countries had instituted 79 per cent of relevant laws and regulations that stipulate full, free and informed consent of individuals before they receive contraceptive services, including sterilization.”

The challenges for the world to achieve gender equality are daunting and in many ways not trade-connected. However, inequality in education, pay, access to capital and other issues have trade repercussions. Expanded trade has helped reduced some aspects of inequality. Government policies to address education and other elements can permit greater equality of opportunity and improve national competitiveness.

Trade and COVID-19

While COVID-19 is first and foremost a healthcare issue, the pandemic is having enormous economic consequences for countries around the world. A recent information note from the World Trade Organization, which builds on a World Bank and WTO report on trade and gender, reviews how women are being disproportionately harmed economically by COVID-19. The disproportionate adverse effects are making it harder to achieve gender equality and to empower all women and girls by 2030. The information note is dated August 3, 2020. See The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Women in Vulnerable Sectors and Economies, Information Note, 3 August 2020, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/info_note_covid_05aug20_e.pdf. The World Bank and WTO report on trade and gender was released in July 2020, “Women and Trade: the role of trade in promoting gender equality”, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/women_trade_pub2807_e.pdf.

While most business data are not collected on a gender specific basis, some information is available that reveals where there are higher levels of female employment. Some industries and service sectors where women have large numbers of workers have suffered serious contractions in work since the beginning of 2020 in response to efforts by governments to control the spread of COVID-19. One example presented in the information note is the textile/apparel sector where trade has been very severely affected by lockdowns and resulting reduced spending on clothing in many markets. Global value chains in the sector affect workers in many countries whether least-developed, developing or developed. Bangladesh is highlighted in the information note. In Bangladesh, ready-made garments comprised 84% of 2019 exports for the country. Eighty percent of the four million workers in the sector in Bangladesh are women. Economic reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic around the world resulted in a 45.8% reduction in business for Bangladesh’s ready-made garment companies in the first quarter of 2020 and an 81% contraction in April. Layoffs have been more than one million workers, mostly women. Depending on governmental safety nets and other economic opportunities in a country, a sharp contraction in a major manufacturing sector can set back efforts at gender equality and increase poverty as the Bangladesh example typifies.

Similarly, women have high employment levels in the travel and tourism sector around the world. Travel and tourism is another sector severely harmed by the response of countries to the COVID-19 pandemic. The UN World Tourism Organization has projected employment losses of as many as 100 million jobs in 2020 as international travel is severely restricted, governments impose restrictions on domestic travel and use of restaurants, bars, hotels, entertainment venues and more by the public and visitors is greatly reduced.

The information note provides a useful summary of the key points on how COVID-19 is impacting women. The following is copied from page 1 of the information note.

“KEY POINTS:

“• Women are at risk of suffering more than men from the trade disruption generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the reasons for this is that a larger share of women works in sectors and types of firms that have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic.

“• Women make up a larger share of the workforce in the manufacturing sectors, such as textiles, apparel, footwear and telecommunication products, that experienced some of the largest falls in export growth during the first months of the pandemic. For example, female employees
represent 80 per cent of the workforce in ready-made garment production in Bangladesh, in which industry orders declined by 45.8 per cent over the first quarter of 2020, and by 81 per cent in April alone.

“• A larger share of women than men works in services, such as tourism and business travel services, that have been directly affected by regional and international travel restrictions.

“• A large share of firms owned or managed by women are micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), and lower levels of financial resources and limited access to public funds are placing the survival of such businesses at greater risk.

“• The economic impact of the pandemic is expected to be particularly significant for women in least-developed and developing economies because fewer women than men are employed in these economies in occupations which can be undertaken remotely, and a larger share of women is employed in sectors highly exposed to international travel restrictions.

“• The effects of the pandemic are aggravating existing vulnerabilities. Many channels through which COVID-19 is having a greater impact on women are those at the heart of gender inequalities, such as lower wages for women, fewer educational opportunities, limited access to finance, greater reliance on informal employment and social constraints. Limited access to digital technologies and lower rates of information technology (IT) skills further reduce women’s opportunities for teleworking and e-commerce, and thus for adapting to the current crisis.

“• Many governments have adopted a broad range of support measures to help individuals and businesses. Some of these measures, mainly social protection initiatives adopted by some central or local governments, are specifically targeted at women.

“• Maintaining open trade during the economic recovery period is key to building faster and more inclusive growth.

“• The joint World Bank and World Trade Organization report on trade and gender, “Women and Trade: the role of trade in promoting gender equality”, published in July 2020, highlights ways in which trade can continue to benefit women in the post-COVID-19 recovery period.”

Keeping trade open will increase trade flows, increase jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, and services and will increase income of people around the world. With the sharp contraction in trade in the first half of 2020, a rapid rebound in trade is critical to support efforts at achieving gender equality.

For countries who don’t have the pandemic under control, the school year presents additional challenges

As the UN 2020 report points out, women bear the brunt of child care. In countries with households where both parents work or where there is a single female adult household, child care and school are critical elements of the infrastructure needed for the parent or both parents being able to work outside of the home.

In the United States, where we are still struggling to get the COVID-19 pandemic under control, parents now face the additional challenge of how to respond to the coming school year. While the Administration is urging all states to open all schools for in-school attendance immediately, the reality is likely to be significantly different based on the science and current rate of spread of COVID-19 in many states. Some school districts have indicated that school openings will be delayed several months. Others will handle school for at least the fall semester remotely. Some are looking at doing part of the school semester remote for each student and part where each student attends the school in person. Finally some schools intend to open requiring students to attend in person. Many school teachers are striking to keep schools closed where it is viewed as unsafe to reopen.

The experience of some school districts that have already opened is mixed in terms of whether a large number of COVID-19 cases arise. Problems with the rise in number of new cases following school reopening have also been reported by at least some countries who have done a much better job of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic than the United States. Israel, for example, has had a sharp increase in infections since reopening schools despite earlier good progress in controlling the spread of the coronavirus.

What U.S. federal stimulus programs will look like going forward for the rest of the year is not presently known. Parents are facing many challenges including whether to send children to school during the pandemic and if not how child care will be handled and who will provide in-home education/support.

News reports indicate that many mothers are making the decision to take on the child care and home education responsibilities, which will mean reduced outside-the-home economic activity for the mothers.

The most important action for the U.S. is to double down on getting the pandemic under control as quickly as possible, something we don’t have a national game plan to actually accomplish at the moment. In addition, government policies and assistance programs that get adopted/extended and private sector support of employees to permit greater telecommuting and flexible hours may hold the key to reducing the negative effects of women during the pandemic.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive health challenges around the world and seen countries suffer the greatest economic contraction since World War II. The economic fallout from the efforts of governments to control the pandemic is harming the ability of the world to make progress on many of the UN’s sustainable development goals. SDG #5, achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls is one of the SDGs being negatively affected.

Both during the pandemic and afterwords, it is critical that countries, businesses, multilateral organizations and others focus on pursuing actions that will minimize the loss of forward movement on achieving the SDG dealing with gender equality. In the trade arena, reducing uncertainty by keeping markets open, identifying steps that can be taken to expand liberalization particularly in goods or services employing large numbers of women, seeing that access to financing and trade finance has a focus on MSMEs, expanding infrastructure and education for broader internet access for populations with limited access at present are some of the needs for minimizing the global economic damage from the pandemic and helping promote greater gender equality.

Update on the collapse of travel and tourism in response to COVID-19

In a post from April 30, I provided information on the importance of travel and tourism to the global economy and the sharp contraction flowing from national efforts to stem the growth in COVID-19 infections. Travel restrictions, stay at home orders and other actions have seriously limited travel and tourism in recent months and will likely continue to do so for at least several more months going forward.

A series of documents from the World Travel & Tourism Council provide an overview of the importance of the sector to various geographic areas of the world in 2019, what had been growth projections to 2030 and the projected job losses in the sector for 2020 because of the pandemic.

In 2019, some 330 million jobs were in the travel and tourism sector globally or one in ten jobs. Travel and tourism in 2019 accounted for 10.3% of the global economy with higher growth rate versus the total global economy (3.5% vs. 2.5%). The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to cost the world 100.8 million jobs in 2020, a loss of 31% from 2019. The loss in global GDP is projected at $2.7 trillion. Truly staggering projected losses from the pandemic are hitting countries and territories around the world.

EIR_Global_Economic_Impact_from_COVID_19_Infographic

The percent of total GDP and total employment in a region was highest in 2019 for the Caribbean at 13.9% and 15.2% respectively, followed by South East Asia at 12.1% and 13.3%, Oceania at 11.7% and 12.6%, North East Asia at 9.8% and 10.0%, the European Union at 9.5% and 11.2%, North America at 8.8% and 11.1%, North Africa at 8.5% and 9.3%, the Middle East at 8.6% and 8.8%, with other areas somewhat lower. International travel and tourism in 2019 was 28.7% of the total with domestic being 71.3%; 21.4% of expenditures were by business travelers with the remaining 78.6% being leisure travel and tourism. 179.7 million jobs in travel and tourism were in Asia in 2019, 37.1 million in Europe, 45.4 million in the Americas, 24.6 million in Africa and 6.7 million in the Middle East.

Projections for 2030 (before the pandemic) were for travel and tourism to capture 11.3% of global GDP and increase employment to 425 million jobs. Depending on the damage from the pandemic and the recovery time , presumably the effects through 2030 will show much smaller employment numbers and a smaller percent of GDP going to travel and tourism.

EIR2020-importance-of-travel-infographics.indd_

While travel and tourism expenditures reflect the size of the overall economy in terms of total dollars, the fastest growth is often in smaller countries, including island countries and territories.

EIR-global-infographic-2020-v2

As seen in these data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, the growth of travel and tourism as a sector in 2019 exceeded growth rates in healthcare, retail and wholesale, agriculture, construction and manufacturing while lagging just information and communications and financial services. Moreover, travel and tourism effect other sectors of the economy when expanding or when contracting. The challenges facing companies like Boeing and Airbus at a time when most commercial fleets are largely not operating would be one obvious example.

For there to be a rapid return to economic growth in many parts of the world as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, all countries will need a return to the use of restaurants, hotels, transportation services, entertainment venues and other elements of the travel and tourism sector.

With the enormous losses being suffered by the sector and the large part of the sector populated by small- and medium-size businesses, many countries are likely to find far fewer travel and tourism businesses operating in the coming months than was true in 2019 even after reopening. Governments in various countries are working to provide financial support to workers and businesses, but it unclear how many businesses will nonetheless go out of business and how many jobs will be lost even after reopening. This is complicated by the social distancing requirements that are either recommended or required by countries who are starting to open up (or in the United States, in the states that are starting to reopen). For example, restaurants typically operate on small margins. Requirements to limit seating to half of capacity (or worse depending on density of current seating arrangements) to be able to implement social distancing recommendations in restaurants could make operating many restaurants uneconomic going forward.

Moreover, for many consumers and businesses, travel and tourism activities will likely be greatly curtailed pending development and distribution to the world’s population of an effective vaccine. This is regardless of government actions to reopen economies and flows from the understandable concern for many people about enjoying normal life when the invisible enemy has no cure. While there are substantial efforts by pharmaceutical companies and government researchers to achieve an unusually quick breakthrough, 2021 is a very optimistic timeline. Whatever the timeline actually is will determine when the travel and tourism sector is able to fully help in rebuilding economic momentum around the world.

From a trade policy perspective, governments can reduce the costs to the state and local governments and to businesses and consumers by keeping markets open, lowering duties, expediting customs clearance and working to expand production of medical goods to eliminate the gap in global supply during periods of peak demand. The latter is the only realistic answer to temporary export restraints by countries who find themselves in a situation of surging infection rates and inadequate supplies where they are significant domestic producers. Moreover, with a second wave of the pandemic possible in the fall/winter, a global ramp up of capacity and production of needed supplies and creation of regional inventories is a need if the world is to avoid further trade disruptions from the pandemic coming back later this year.

Other actions by governments such as stimulus programs and safety net projects, reinforcing healthcare infrastructure, ramping up testing, tracing and quarantining, and addressing the financial needs of developing and least developed countries are all being pursued to some extent by international organizations and by individual countries, though the stress on the global economy complicates the extent of some of these efforts going forward.

Conclusion

The pandemic is projected to result in the loss of more than 100 million jobs in the travel and tourism sector in 2020 – a staggering situation and certainly among the most difficult of the global challenges to economies from COVID-19. The reality will be that travel and tourism will trail other parts of the global economy in rebounding as economies are reopened absent an effective vaccine which in all likelihood is a year or more (at a minimum) away. Governments and international organizations need to focus on steps which can reduce the challenges for the sector in the coming months. The UN World Tourism Organization has prepared a series of recommendation that were reviewed in my earlier post. They are a good starting point.

The collapse of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic

As any of us knows all too well, the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting government efforts to control the spread of the virus has led to sharp reductions in the use of various services, including restaurants, hotels, entertainment venues and travel. This has been true domestically in many countries and has been even more obvious when one looks at international travel and tourism.

In a news release from the UN World Tourism Organization (“UNWTO”) on 28 April 2020, the toll on global tourism is reviewed, and the facts are shocking. See https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-04/200428%20-%20Travel%20Restrictions%20EN.pdf. The news release is copied below and is followed by the full report (embedded).

“100% OF GLOBAL DESTINATIONS NOW HAVE COVID-19 TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS, UNWTO REPORTS

Madrid, Spain, 28 April 2020 – The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted all destinations worldwide to introduce restrictions on travel, research by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has found. This represents the most severe restriction on international travel in history and no country has so far lifted restrictions introduced in response to the crisis.

“Following up on previous research, the latest data from the United Nations specialized agency for tourism shows that 100% of destinations now have restrictions in place, of these, 83% have had COVID-19-related restrictions in place already for four or more weeks and, as of 20 April, so far no destination has lifted them.

“UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: ‘Tourism has shown its commitment to putting people first. Our sector can also lead the way in driving recovery. This research on global travel restrictions will help support the timely and responsible implementation of exit strategies, allowing destinations to ease or lift travel restrictions when it is safe to do so. This way, the social and economic benefits that tourism offers can return, providing a path to sustainable recovery for both individuals and whole countries.’

Tracking Restrictions by Time and Severity

“As well as a general overview, the UNWTO research breaks down the type of travel restrictions that have been introduced by destinations in all of the global regions, while also plotting the evolution of these restrictions since 30 January – when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The latest analysis shows that, of 217 destinations worldwide:

“• 45% have totally or partially closed their borders for tourists – ‘Passengers are not allowed to enter’

“• 30% have suspended totally or partially international flights – ‘all flights are suspended’

“• 18% are banning the entry for passengers from specific countries of origin or passengers who have transited through specific destinations

“• 7% are applying different measures, such as quarantine or self-isolation for 14 days and visa measures.

“Against this backdrop, UNWTO has been leading calls for governments worldwide to commit to supporting tourism through this unprecedented challenge. According to Secretary-General Pololikashvili, the sudden and unexpected fall in tourism demand caused by COVID-19 places millions of jobs and livelihoods at risk while at the same time jeopardising the advances made in sustainable development and equality over recent years.” (emphasis and italics in the original)

TravelRestrictions-28-April

UNWTO data show roughly 1.5 billion arrivals of travelers around the world in 2019 following a long-term growth record in arrivals, accounting for 10% of global jobs and $1.5 trillion of international tourism receipts. See https://www.unwto.org/healing-solutions-tourism-challenge. The UNWTO in late March projected a decline in international tourism receipts for 2020 of 20-30% from 2019 (or $300-450 billion). See https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-03/200327%20-%20COVID-19%20Impact%20Assessment%20EN.pdf. The situation is likely more precarious as we enter May with the continued global economic harm flowing from government actions to address the continued strong expansion of number of confirmed cases worldwide and deaths. As noted, every government with international tourism has introduced and continues to maintain travel restrictions. Stay at home orders have closed restaurants (other than take out or delivery), hotels, entertainment venues and more.

While all countries and territories are adversely affected by the toll on international tourism from the pandemic, the harm is greater to island nations and poorer countries where tourism is a high percentage of total GDP. Even for advanced countries, the importance of tourism can be critical to a functioning economy. In the EU, a recent article indicates that 10% of GDP is from tourism with some countries (Greece and Malta) having much higher percentages (20-25%). See https://www.dw.com/en/when-and-how-post-coronavirus-travel-in-the-eu-is-up-in-the-air/a-53273416

Commitments for tourism and travel services under the World Trade Organization

Many World Trade Organization Members have undertaken tourism and travel-related service commitments. As noted on the WTO webpage on Tourism and travel-related services, https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/tourism_e/tourism_e.htm, more than 125 WTO members have made services commitments in the tourism area (hotels, restaurants (including catering), travel agencies, tour operator services tourist guide services, etc.). A note from the WTO Secretariat in 2009 provides information on commitments undertaken by Member (at that time, more countries have joined the WTO in the decade since the note) as well as providing other information on travelers by country and receipts. See S/C/W/298 (8 June 2009) embedded below.

SCW298

But, as with trade in goods, trade in services has general exceptions which permit Members to adopt or enforce measures “necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health” as long as such measures “are not applied in a manner which would constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination between countries where like conditions prevail, or a disguised restriction on trade in services”. GATS Article XIV(b). Measures adopted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic restricting travel (and resulting effects on other services) have not been challenged at the WTO and would be likely found permissible even if challenged.

Many of the actions governments are taking to keep supplies of medical goods and food moving are only tangentially relevant to tourism in the broad sense, though of assistance to those needing to travel or moving goods. Removal of restrictions will likely occur over time and tourism’s return will also depend on confidence of consumers in the safety of travel, of dining out, of staying in hotels and of attending entertainment events. That confidence is likely going to flow primarily from the adequacy of testing, tracking and quarantining of those found to be infected, and ultimately with the development and widespread availability of a vaccine.

UNWTO recommendations for actions to address the pandemic and accelerate recovery

In a publication released on April 1, 2020, the UNWTO identifies 23 actions they seek governments to embrace broken into three topics:

1, “Managing the crisis and mitigating the impact” (1-7);

2. “Providing stimulus and accelerating recovery” (8-16)’

3. “Preparing for tomorrow” (17-23).

The 23 action recommendations are listed below. The full UNWTO document is embedded after that. As the list of action recommendations reveals, some of the action recommendations are included in actions already taken by major countries including China, the EU and its members, the United States and others. Actions reviewed in earlier posts by the IMF and others may permit some of these action recommendations to be implemented by some of the developing and least developed countries. Many of the recommendations will likely not be addressable in the near term but may encourage collective activity post pandemic.

“1. Incentivize job retention, sustain the self-employed and
protect the most vulnerable groups

“2. Support companies’ liquidity

“3. Review taxes, charges, levies and regulations impacting
transport and tourism

“4. Ensure consumer protection and confidence

“5. Promote skills development, especially digital skills

“6. Include tourism in national, regional and global economic
emergency packages

“7. Create crisis management mechanisms and strategies

“8. Provide financial stimulus for tourism investment and
operations

“9. Review taxes, charges and regulations impacting travel and
tourism

“10. Advance travel facilitation

“11. Promote new jobs and skills development, particularly
digital ones

“12. Mainstream environmental sustainability in stimulus and
recovery packages

“13. Understand the market and act quickly to restore
confidence and stimulate demand

“14. Boost marketing, events and meetings

“15. Invest in partnerships

“16. Mainstream tourism in national, regional and international
recovery programmes and in Development Assistance

“17. Diversify markets, products and services

“18. Invest in market intelligence systems and digital
transformation

“19. Reinforce tourism governance at all levels

“20. Prepare for crisis, build resilience and ensure tourism is
part of national emergency mechanism and systems

“21. Invest in human capital and talent development

“22. Place sustainable tourism firmly on the national agenda

“23. Transition to the circular economy and embrace the SDGs.” (Sustainable Development Goals).

COVID19_Recommendations_English_1

Conclusion

As the world is exploring ways to reopen individual economies as the worst of COVID-19 (at least phase 1) passes, governments will be under enormous pressure to reopen as quickly as is responsible to do. As data from the UNWTO demonstrate, travel and tourism is a labor intensive sector which has outgrown overall economic growth in the last decade and which can help facilitate recovery when economies are able to reopen.

There are huge challenges in the short- and medium-term for the sector including the depth of the decline, the fragility of many of the businesses financially and the challenges to restoration of consumer confidence. With the United States alone having recorded nearly 30 million people filing for unemployment over the last six weeks, the size of the economic challenge globally is obviously massive. The UNWTO recommended actions address an array of certain needs for many players. For those businesses that survive the pandemic, restoring consumer confidence and having governments withdraw restrictions safely will become the biggest challenges to forward movement. Government actions during the pandemic to provide safety nets for businesses and workers will influence how many businesses and jobs remain when markets do reopen.