Africa

Recent National Public Radio story, “Africa may have reached the pandemic’s holy grail,” raises interesting questions on a country’s age distribution and ability to get past the pandemic stage with lower vaccination rates

· January 30, 2022 · Uncategorized · , , , , · No Comments

Every country that has had large numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths reported have shared the experience that older populations and those with certain health conditions have been the groups at greatest risk, along with front line health care workers Vaccinations and booster shots can significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization and death for these groups and for younger age groups as well.

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised important questions on vaccine equity. Low income and lower-middle income countries have generally had much poorer access to vaccines and to getting vaccines received administered, although the rate of vaccination varies within income groups as well as between income groups. See, e.g., January 23, 2022:  COVID-19 Omicron variant – hopeful signs of peaking in the U.S. and Europe; supply disruptions continue from zero tolerance policy in China, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2022/01/23/covid-19-omicron-variant-hopeful-signs-of-peaking-in-the-u-s-and-europe-supply-disruptions-continue-from-zero-tolerance-policy-in-china/.

Much focus has been on low income countries and lower-middle income countries, particularly in Africa, where vaccination rates trail dramatically all other countries and income groups.

On Friday, January 28, 2022, National Public Radio in the U.S. posted an article, “Africa may have reached the pandemic’s holy grail,” https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/28/1072591923/africa-may-have-reached-the-pandemics-holy-grail. The following excerpt reviews that large portions of the population in countries like Malawi were infected by the first waves of the COVID-19 virus which built up immunity to the omicron variant. Despite any reinfections that have occurred, hospitalizations and deaths were very low despite very low vaccination rates. The population of many low income countries is much younger than higher income countries and thus infections were typically much less severe. A few excerpts from the NPR article follow.

“When the results of his study came in, Kondwani Jambo was stunned.

“He’s an immunologist in Malawi. And last year he had set out to determine just how many people in his country had been infected with the coronavirus since the pandemic began.

“Jambo, who works for the Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, knew the total number of cases was going to be higher than the official numbers. But his study revealed that the scale of spread was beyond anything he had anticipated — with a huge majority of Malawians infected long before the omicron variant emerged. ‘I was very shocked,’ he says.

“Most important, he says, the finding suggests that it has now been months since Malawi entered something akin to what many countries still struggling with massive omicron waves consider the holy grail: the endemic stage of the pandemic, in which the coronavirus becomes a more predictable seasonal bug like the flu or common cold.

“In fact, top scientists in Africa say Malawi is just one of many countries on the continent that appear to have already reached — if not quite endemicity — at least a substantially less threatening stage, as evidenced by both studies of the population’s prior exposure to the coronavirus and its experience with the omicron variant.”

With global vaccine production dramatically up from this time last year and with much larger quantities getting shipped to low income and lower-middle income countries, the above article suggests that omicron has not done serious damage to most countries at the low income range and that significantly increased vaccinations in 2022 should help ensure a safer future.

Looking at UN population data by age group and by median age shows an interesting correlation between median age and income level of country. The median age for low income countries in 2020 (est.) was 19.0 years; for low-middle income countries, 26.6 years; for upper-middle income countries, 35.4 years and for high income countries, 41.0 years. See United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects 2019.

Looking at breakdowns by age groups, the UN data show the following percent of population in the World Bank income groups.

Age GroupLow IncomeLower-Middle IncomeUpper-Middle IncomeHigh Income
0-14 41.3% 29.4% 20.4% 16.6%
15-49 48.2% 52.8% 50.5% 45.6%
50+ 10.5% 17.8% 29.1% 37.7%
60+ 5.2% 9.1% 15.8% 24.4%
65+ 3.3% 5.9% 10.8% 18.4%
75+ 1.0% 1.9% 3.6% 8.4%

Age distribution has been a silver lining in an otherwise challenging global situation these last two years.

WTO Director-General selection — block voting likely to ensure next Director-General is a female

· September 24, 2020 · Selection of WTO Director-General · , , , , , , , , , , , , , · No Comments

As the World Trade Organization starts the second round of consultations with Members today to continue to winnow down the list of candidates to move forward to the third round in mid-October, the likelihood of block preferences by countries within the EU and from Africa would seem to guarantee that the two candidates remaining at the end of the second round of consultations are two of the three women candidates — Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of Nigeria, H.E. Yoo Myung-hee of the Republic of Korea and H.E. Amina C. Mohamed of Kenya.

First, African Members of the WTO have been arguing since before the start of the selection process that it was time for a Director-General to be from Africa. With two of the five remaining candidates being from Africa, if African Members provide as their preferences the two remaining African candidates, those two candidate will have a large support base before one looks at the rest of the world. There are currently some 45 WTO Members from Africa. While it is always possible for Members from Africa to support only one of the two African candidates and to pick a second preference from outside of the continent, it is likely that most Members will provide both African candidates as preferences to improve the chances of an African candidate in fact being selected as the next Director-General.

Second, press articles in recent days have indicated that the 27 European Union countries had given their preferences for the same candidates in round one of the consultations and that had led to three of the four candidates they supported advancing — the three women candidates from Nigeria, Kenya and the Republic of Korea. They had not expressed preferences for either of the two male candidates who advanced, H.E. Mohammad Moziad Al-Tuwaijri of Saudi Arabia and the Rt Hon Dr. Liam Fox MP of the United Kingdom. While WTO Members are obviously not limited to prefer in later rounds individuals they expressed preferences for in earlier rounds, it is expected that the EU countries (with limited exceptions) will agree on two of the three women candidates for Round 2. This would be consistent with their apparent desire to see a candidate from a different geographical area than recent DGs and for a candiate who is female supporting gender equality objectives of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. There is one known likely exception to the EU expressing preferences as a block approach. Specifically, the press has indicated that Hungary intends to identify its preferences as H.E. Mohamed of Kenya and Dr. Fox of the United Kingdom.

It is expected that each of the women candidates will have reasonable support in other parts of the world as well. With Dr. Seade out of the running, the Americas has no geographic candidate and will certainly provide a fair portion of their preferences to one or two of the women candidates. Similarly, Asia and the Pacific will split preferences among the five remaining candidates ensuring some additional support for each of the women.

While H.E. Al-Tuwaijri and Dr. Fox will certainly receive support in round two of the consultations from a significant number of Members, if the EU and Africa vote largely in blocks, it is hard to imagine how either of them advances to the final round of consultations.

Depending on the block preference approach of Africa and the EU, the two candidates who advance will either be the two African candidates or one of the African candidates and the Korean trade minister.

My assumption is that the third round will be a face off between H.E. Mohamed and Dr. Okonjo-Iweala. We will know in early October.

Update on the collapse of travel and tourism in response to COVID-19

· May 3, 2020 · COVID-19 · , , , , , , , , · No Comments

In a post from April 30, I provided information on the importance of travel and tourism to the global economy and the sharp contraction flowing from national efforts to stem the growth in COVID-19 infections. Travel restrictions, stay at home orders and other actions have seriously limited travel and tourism in recent months and will likely continue to do so for at least several more months going forward.

A series of documents from the World Travel & Tourism Council provide an overview of the importance of the sector to various geographic areas of the world in 2019, what had been growth projections to 2030 and the projected job losses in the sector for 2020 because of the pandemic.

In 2019, some 330 million jobs were in the travel and tourism sector globally or one in ten jobs. Travel and tourism in 2019 accounted for 10.3% of the global economy with higher growth rate versus the total global economy (3.5% vs. 2.5%). The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to cost the world 100.8 million jobs in 2020, a loss of 31% from 2019. The loss in global GDP is projected at $2.7 trillion. Truly staggering projected losses from the pandemic are hitting countries and territories around the world.

EIR_Global_Economic_Impact_from_COVID_19_Infographic

The percent of total GDP and total employment in a region was highest in 2019 for the Caribbean at 13.9% and 15.2% respectively, followed by South East Asia at 12.1% and 13.3%, Oceania at 11.7% and 12.6%, North East Asia at 9.8% and 10.0%, the European Union at 9.5% and 11.2%, North America at 8.8% and 11.1%, North Africa at 8.5% and 9.3%, the Middle East at 8.6% and 8.8%, with other areas somewhat lower. International travel and tourism in 2019 was 28.7% of the total with domestic being 71.3%; 21.4% of expenditures were by business travelers with the remaining 78.6% being leisure travel and tourism. 179.7 million jobs in travel and tourism were in Asia in 2019, 37.1 million in Europe, 45.4 million in the Americas, 24.6 million in Africa and 6.7 million in the Middle East.

Projections for 2030 (before the pandemic) were for travel and tourism to capture 11.3% of global GDP and increase employment to 425 million jobs. Depending on the damage from the pandemic and the recovery time , presumably the effects through 2030 will show much smaller employment numbers and a smaller percent of GDP going to travel and tourism.

EIR2020-importance-of-travel-infographics.indd_

While travel and tourism expenditures reflect the size of the overall economy in terms of total dollars, the fastest growth is often in smaller countries, including island countries and territories.

EIR-global-infographic-2020-v2

As seen in these data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, the growth of travel and tourism as a sector in 2019 exceeded growth rates in healthcare, retail and wholesale, agriculture, construction and manufacturing while lagging just information and communications and financial services. Moreover, travel and tourism effect other sectors of the economy when expanding or when contracting. The challenges facing companies like Boeing and Airbus at a time when most commercial fleets are largely not operating would be one obvious example.

For there to be a rapid return to economic growth in many parts of the world as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, all countries will need a return to the use of restaurants, hotels, transportation services, entertainment venues and other elements of the travel and tourism sector.

With the enormous losses being suffered by the sector and the large part of the sector populated by small- and medium-size businesses, many countries are likely to find far fewer travel and tourism businesses operating in the coming months than was true in 2019 even after reopening. Governments in various countries are working to provide financial support to workers and businesses, but it unclear how many businesses will nonetheless go out of business and how many jobs will be lost even after reopening. This is complicated by the social distancing requirements that are either recommended or required by countries who are starting to open up (or in the United States, in the states that are starting to reopen). For example, restaurants typically operate on small margins. Requirements to limit seating to half of capacity (or worse depending on density of current seating arrangements) to be able to implement social distancing recommendations in restaurants could make operating many restaurants uneconomic going forward.

Moreover, for many consumers and businesses, travel and tourism activities will likely be greatly curtailed pending development and distribution to the world’s population of an effective vaccine. This is regardless of government actions to reopen economies and flows from the understandable concern for many people about enjoying normal life when the invisible enemy has no cure. While there are substantial efforts by pharmaceutical companies and government researchers to achieve an unusually quick breakthrough, 2021 is a very optimistic timeline. Whatever the timeline actually is will determine when the travel and tourism sector is able to fully help in rebuilding economic momentum around the world.

From a trade policy perspective, governments can reduce the costs to the state and local governments and to businesses and consumers by keeping markets open, lowering duties, expediting customs clearance and working to expand production of medical goods to eliminate the gap in global supply during periods of peak demand. The latter is the only realistic answer to temporary export restraints by countries who find themselves in a situation of surging infection rates and inadequate supplies where they are significant domestic producers. Moreover, with a second wave of the pandemic possible in the fall/winter, a global ramp up of capacity and production of needed supplies and creation of regional inventories is a need if the world is to avoid further trade disruptions from the pandemic coming back later this year.

Other actions by governments such as stimulus programs and safety net projects, reinforcing healthcare infrastructure, ramping up testing, tracing and quarantining, and addressing the financial needs of developing and least developed countries are all being pursued to some extent by international organizations and by individual countries, though the stress on the global economy complicates the extent of some of these efforts going forward.

Conclusion

The pandemic is projected to result in the loss of more than 100 million jobs in the travel and tourism sector in 2020 – a staggering situation and certainly among the most difficult of the global challenges to economies from COVID-19. The reality will be that travel and tourism will trail other parts of the global economy in rebounding as economies are reopened absent an effective vaccine which in all likelihood is a year or more (at a minimum) away. Governments and international organizations need to focus on steps which can reduce the challenges for the sector in the coming months. The UN World Tourism Organization has prepared a series of recommendation that were reviewed in my earlier post. They are a good starting point.